Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction For 4/25/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Overview

• Date: April 25, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates
• Run Line: Brewers -1.5 135, Pirates 1.5 -160
• Money Line: Brewers -130, Pirates 110
• Total (Over/Under): 7

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Milwaukee Brewers - 54%
• Pittsburgh Pirates - 46%

Projected Win %:

• Milwaukee Brewers - 57.97%
• Pittsburgh Pirates - 42.03%

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Game Preview & Prediction

In a matchup scheduled for April 25, 2024, the Pittsburgh Pirates will be hosting the Milwaukee Brewers at PNC Park. As part of the National League Central division, this game carries significant weight for both teams.

The Pirates have been having an above-average season, with a record of 13-12. They are projected to start right-handed pitcher Mitch Keller, who has a 2-2 win/loss record this year. Keller's ERA stands at 4.80, indicating a below-average performance. However, his 4.03 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward. The Pirates' offense ranks as the 21st best in MLB this season, with a team batting average that places them at 26th.

On the other side, the Brewers are having a great season with a record of 15-8. They will be sending right-handed pitcher Freddy Peralta to the mound, who boasts a stellar 2-0 win/loss record and an impressive 1.90 ERA. Peralta's 2.41 xFIP indicates that he may have been fortunate and could regress slightly in his future performances. The Brewers' offense is ranked as the 3rd best in MLB, although their team batting average sits at a lower 27th place.

Considering the projections, Keller is expected to pitch around 5.9 innings and allow an average of 2.5 earned runs. He is also projected to strike out 5.6 batters but allow 5.5 hits and 2.0 walks, which are not favorable numbers. Peralta, on the other hand, is expected to pitch around 5.5 innings and allow an average of 1.8 earned runs. He is projected to strike out 7.1 batters but allow 3.9 hits and 2.0 walks.

The game total is currently set at 7.0 runs, indicating a low-scoring affair. The moneyline odds favor the Brewers at -130, suggesting a 54% implied win probability, while the Pirates sit at +110 with a 46% implied win probability.

Both teams have their key hitters to rely on. For the Pirates, their best hitter this season has been unnamed, while the Brewers' top performer remains unmentioned as well. However, in the last seven games, Connor Joe has been the Pirates' standout hitter, while Brice Turang has been impressive for the Brewers.

While the Brewers may have the statistical edge in terms of rankings and projections, the Pirates' strong bullpen and the potential for an upset make this game an intriguing matchup. Baseball fans and sports bettors alike can anticipate an exciting contest between these NL Central rivals.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Freddy Peralta has been given more leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, tallying 3.9 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Milwaukee Brewers' bullpen profiles as the 8th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Mitch Keller has experienced some negative variance in regards to his strikeouts this year, compiling a 7.50 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.69 — a 1.19 K/9 disparity.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Jack Suwinski is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Milwaukee (#1-best of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Joey Bart pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.3% — 89th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 9th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 60 of their last 104 games (+13.80 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games (+10.08 Units / 18% ROI)

Brewers vs Pirates Prediction: Brewers 3.94 - Pirates 3.12

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