Milwaukee Brewers at Oakland Athletics Pick & Prediction – 8/25/2024

• Date: August 25, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Frankie Montas - Brewers
  • Joey Estes - Athletics

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers travel to Oakland to face the Athletics on August 25, 2024, in what promises to be an intriguing Interleague matchup. Oakland has struggled this season with a record of 55-75, while Milwaukee is having a remarkable year at 75-54. The Brewers are currently positioned well in the playoff race, and their strong performance has kept them in contention.

In their last outing, the Athletics faced the Brewers, with Milwaukee winning in Oakland for the second day in a row. Joey Estes is projected to start for Oakland, bringing a modest 4.44 ERA into this contest, though his recent performance suggests he has benefited from some good fortune, as indicated by his 5.16 xFIP. With only 17 starts under his belt this year and a W-L record of 5-6, he ranks as the 244th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. His control should serve him well against a Brewers lineup that is patient but may struggle to capitalize on walks.

Opposing him is Frankie Montas, who has been an average pitcher this season with a 4.57 ERA and a 6-8 record over 23 starts. Montas's ability to limit damage could be a key factor, particularly against an Athletics offense that ranks just 22nd in the league. Despite their power, ranking 4th in home runs, their overall offensive performance has left much to be desired.

The game total is set at 8.0 runs, reflecting a competitive matchup. Interestingly, the projections suggest that the Athletics might perform better than expected given their current moneyline of +110, indicating potential value for bettors looking to support the underdogs.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Frankie Montas has averaged 93.5 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, checking in at the 83rd percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Jake Bauers has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Oakland Athletics has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Milwaukee Brewers bats collectively grade out 26th- in the league for power this year when judging by their 7.1% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Joey Estes has relied on his fastball a lot this year, though: 54.8% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (18.8) implies that Lawrence Butler has experienced some positive variance this year with his 26.2 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brent Rooker in the 97th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 45 games (+10.15 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 54 games (+9.25 Units / 16% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 45 games (+18.00 Units / 34% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.34 vs Oakland Athletics 3.98

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.