Milwaukee Brewers at Oakland Athletics Pick & Prediction – 8/24/2024

• Date: August 24, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Colin Rea - Brewers
  • Joe Boyle - Athletics

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

On August 24, 2024, the Oakland Athletics will host the Milwaukee Brewers in an intriguing interleague matchup at Oakland Coliseum. Yesterday, the Brewers secured a victory in their first game of the series, while the Athletics are struggling this season with a 55-73 record, making it a tough year for the team. Meanwhile, the Brewers are enjoying a solid year, sitting at 73-54.

The Athletics are projected to start Joe Boyle, a right-handed pitcher with a disappointing 6.21 ERA. Although his 5.14 xFIP suggests he could improve with better luck, his performance so far indicates he’s below average, ranking 149th among roughly 350 pitchers. Boyle has been particularly prone to walks, boasting a staggering 16.5 BB%. He will be facing a Brewers lineup that walks more than any other team in MLB, which could spell trouble for Boyle.

On the other side, Milwaukee will counter with Colin Rea, who has had a strong season with an 11-4 record and a solid ERA of 3.52. While his projections indicate he might face some regression, Rea's low strikeout rate may be less of a concern against the Athletics, who rank 2nd in the league in strikeouts.

At the plate, the Athletics have shown power, ranking 4th in home runs, but their overall offensive ranking at 20th leaves much to be desired. The Brewers, however, have performed better, ranking 10th in MLB and 5th in batting average.

With both teams coming off different recent performances, the matchup presents a compelling narrative, especially for bettors looking to capitalize on the Brewers' favorable conditions given their strong season and the Athletics' struggles.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Colin Rea has used his slider 6% more often this year (16.7%) than he did last year (10.7%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

When it comes to his home runs, Jackson Chourio has been lucky this year. His 21.2 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 14.6.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Jake Bauers pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.3% — 89th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 10th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Over his previous 3 starts, Joe Boyle has produced a significant increase in his fastball velocity: from 96.6 mph over the entire season to 98.4 mph lately.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Lawrence Butler is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Oakland Athletics have 5 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Shea Langeliers, Zack Gelof, Max Schuemann, Seth Brown, Brent Rooker).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 37 games (+9.80 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 74 of their last 128 games (+13.20 Units / 8% ROI)
• Miguel Andujar has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 24 games at home (+11.30 Units / 44% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.19 vs Oakland Athletics 4.24

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