Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins Prediction For 7/20/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins Details

• Date: July 20, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers
  • Pablo Lopez - Twins

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

A thrilling interleague matchup is set for July 20, 2024, as the Minnesota Twins host the Milwaukee Brewers at Target Field. The Twins, standing at 54-42, and the Brewers, at 55-42, both boast impressive records, making this a highly anticipated clash between two contending teams vying for playoff positioning.

Minnesota plans to send Pablo Lopez to the mound. Despite his 5.11 ERA, Lopez's peripheral indicators, including a 3.21 xFIP, suggest he's been unlucky and could improve moving forward. Lopez's 8-7 record over 19 starts adds to his narrative of resilience. Additionally, his low 5.3 BB% indicates excellent control, which might neutralize Milwaukee’s #3 rank in drawing walks.

On the other side, the Brewers will counter with Freddy Peralta. With a 4.11 ERA and a 3.47 xFIP, Peralta has also seen some bad luck. Yet, his ranking as the 12th best starting pitcher in MLB underscores his elite status. Peralta's ability to average 6.8 strikeouts per game bodes well against a potent Twins lineup.

Offensively, both teams bring firepower to the table. The Twins rank 5th in overall offense and 7th in home runs, emphasizing their strength at the plate. However, their 25th rank in stolen bases suggests they are less of a threat on the base paths. Conversely, Milwaukee's offense ranks 8th overall but only 21st in home runs. Their 2nd rank in stolen bases, however, indicates they can manufacture runs in different ways.

The bullpen story contrasts sharply: Minnesota's bullpen ranks 2nd, highlighting their depth and reliability in closing out games. Meanwhile, Milwaukee’s bullpen ranks 22nd, posing a potential vulnerability late in the game.

With the betting markets implying a 52% win probability for the Twins and 48% for the Brewers, the matchup is expected to be close. Given the Twins' strong offense, elite bullpen, and Pablo Lopez's potential for positive regression, Minnesota holds a slight edge in this pivotal interleague series opener.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense grades out as the strongest out of all the teams playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Despite posting a .399 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Christian Yelich has been very fortunate given the .049 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .350.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Pablo Lopez has averaged 91.8 adjusted pitches per GS this year, placing in the 76th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Max Kepler has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (85% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Byron Buxton pulls many of his flyballs (41.9% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 75 games (+7.85 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 51 of their last 95 games (+8.75 Units / 8% ROI)
• Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.10 Units / 27% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.21 vs Minnesota Twins 4.18

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