Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins Best Bet – 7/21/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins Details

• Date: July 21, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Civale - Brewers
  • Joe Ryan - Twins

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

The Minnesota Twins and Milwaukee Brewers square off on July 21, 2024, at Target Field in what promises to be an intriguing interleague matchup. Both teams are having strong seasons, with the Twins sporting a 54-43 record and the Brewers at 56-42. To add even more excitement, this game will be the second in their series.

The Twins hold a slight edge as betting favorites with a moneyline of -160, translating to an implied win probability of 59%. They will be looking to capitalize on their home-field advantage and the performance of Joe Ryan, who ranks as the 23rd-best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Ryan’s season stats are solid, boasting a 6-6 record and a 3.53 ERA across 19 starts. He is particularly adept at limiting walks, which could negate one of the Brewers' strengths: drawing walks. The Brewers rank 3rd in MLB in walks, but Ryan's low 4.1 BB% might make it difficult for Milwaukee to exploit their patience at the plate.

Aaron Civale will take the mound for the Brewers. While he has had a tough season with a 2-7 record and a 4.94 ERA, his 4.12 xFIP suggests he's been somewhat unlucky. Despite his challenges, Civale’s peripheral stats indicate he could perform better moving forward. However, facing a potent Twins offense that ranks 5th in overall talent, 6th in batting average, and 7th in home runs could be a daunting task. Even if Civale manages to limit damage from Minnesota's bats, the Brewers' bullpen, ranked 22nd, might not provide much relief.

On the flip side, the Brewers’ offense ranks 8th overall and 4th in batting average, but they lack power, sitting at 21st in home runs. Milwaukee's speed on the bases, ranked 2nd in stolen bases, will have to find ways to challenge a Twins pitching staff supported by the 3rd-best bullpen in MLB.

With both teams looking to solidify their playoff positions, this game offers plenty of intrigue. The Twins’ strong pitching matchup and offensive firepower against a struggling Civale make them a compelling pick. Meanwhile, the Brewers will need to rely on their hitting and speed to keep pace in what is set to be an exciting contest.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Aaron Civale's cutter utilization has dropped by 6% from last season to this one (37.4% to 31.4%) .

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Garrett Mitchell has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (50% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Milwaukee Brewers' bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst among all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Joe Ryan's 93.4-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a significant 1.8-mph increase from last season's 91.6-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Max Kepler has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89-mph dropping to 84.5-mph in the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Byron Buxton pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.9% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 31 games (+8.15 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 52 of their last 91 games (+7.60 Units / 7% ROI)
• Willy Adames has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 23 away games (+13.35 Units / 38% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.06 vs Minnesota Twins 4.47

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