Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies Pick & Prediction – 7/4/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies Details

• Date: July 4, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tobias Myers - Brewers
  • Cal Quantrill - Rockies

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

The Colorado Rockies and Milwaukee Brewers are set to clash on July 4, 2024, at Coors Field in a National League matchup. The Rockies, sitting at a dismal 29-57, are having a tough season, while the Brewers, boasting a strong 52-35 record, are enjoying a great run. This contest marks the fourth game in the series between these teams.

The Rockies will send Cal Quantrill to the mound. Quantrill, a right-hander, has been inconsistent this season with a 6-6 record and a decent 3.78 ERA. However, his advanced stats reveal some underlying concerns; his 4.30 xFIP suggests he's been fortunate and might struggle moving forward. Quantrill is projected to pitch 5.2 innings, allow 3.3 earned runs, and strike out 3.8 batters. His projections for hits (6.3) and walks (1.9) indicate potential trouble against a potent Brewers lineup.

On the other side, the Brewers will counter with right-hander Tobias Myers. Myers, despite a solid 5-2 record and an impressive 3.26 ERA, has an alarming 4.12 xFIP, hinting at potential regression. Myers is projected to pitch 4.6 innings, allow 2.9 earned runs, and strike out 4.2 batters. Like Quantrill, his projection for hits (5.5) and walks (1.4) aren't promising.

The Rockies' offense ranks 18th in MLB, with middling stats in batting average (14th), home runs (19th), and stolen bases (17th). Recently, Brenton Doyle has been a bright spot, hitting .375 with a 1.423 OPS over the last week. Doyle's hot bat could provide a spark for the Rockies.

In contrast, the Brewers' offense stands 8th in MLB, with a notable 4th place in batting average and 2nd in stolen bases. Christian Yelich has been on fire, batting .400 with a 1.223 OPS over the past week. His performance will be crucial in this matchup.

The Brewers' bullpen, ranked 14th in the Power Rankings, and the Rockies' bullpen, ranked 23rd, also point to a significant advantage for Milwaukee. The game total is set at a high 10.5 runs, reflecting the expected offensive output.

With Milwaukee favored at -140, their implied win probability is 56%, while the Rockies sit at +120 with an implied win probability of 44%. Considering the Brewers' stronger lineup, better bullpen, and overall superior season performance, they appear to be in a favorable position to take this game.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Compared to the average pitcher, Tobias Myers has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an -14.1 fewer adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Jake Bauers is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 64% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Milwaukee Brewers are expected to score the most runs (6.24 on average) on the slate today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Cal Quantrill's cutter usage has decreased by 10.9% from last year to this one (24% to 13.1%) .

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Nolan Jones has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.1-mph to 98-mph in the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Compared to their .317 overall projected rate, the .297 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected lineup in today's game suggests this version of the lineup a good deal missing some of their usual firepower.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 57 games (+11.65 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 71 games (+10.55 Units / 12% ROI)
• Brice Turang has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+11.20 Units / 54% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 6.24 vs Colorado Rockies 5.73

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