Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies Best Bet – 7/3/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies Details

• Date: July 3, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Colin Rea - Brewers
  • Dakota Hudson - Rockies

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers (51-35) are set to take on the Colorado Rockies (29-56) at Coors Field on July 3, 2024, in what will be the third game of their series. The Brewers, having a stellar season, will look to continue their dominance against the struggling Rockies. Milwaukee is firmly in playoff contention, while Colorado's season has been nothing short of disastrous.

The Rockies will start Dakota Hudson, who is ranked as the 289th best starting pitcher in MLB, making him one of the worst. Hudson holds a dismal 2-11 Win/Loss record with a 5.84 ERA over 16 starts. His 5.27 xFIP suggests he's been somewhat unlucky, but he still projects to allow 3.3 earned runs and 6.3 hits in an average of 4.8 innings, which is quite concerning.

On the other side, the Brewers will counter with Colin Rea, who is also considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB. Despite his decent 7-2 Win/Loss record and a solid 3.61 ERA, his 4.59 xFIP hints that he's been fortunate so far and might regress. Rea projects to allow 3.4 earned runs and 6.4 hits in 4.9 innings.

Offensively, the Brewers have the edge. Milwaukee ranks 9th overall this season, with a 4th-best batting average, while also ranking 15th in home runs and 2nd in stolen bases. Jackson Chourio has been their hottest hitter of late, posting a .412 batting average and a 1.268 OPS over the last week, along with 7 RBIs and 6 runs.

The Rockies' offense is average overall, ranking 18th, but they do sit 13th in batting average, with Brenton Doyle leading the charge recently. Doyle has recorded 5 hits, 6 RBIs, and 3 home runs in the past 5 games.

Given the pitching matchups and offensive capabilities, the Brewers are favored, with an implied win probability of 59%. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees this as a closer contest, projecting the Rockies with a 49% win probability. This discrepancy suggests there might be value in betting on Colorado, especially considering the high Game Total of 11.5 runs, indicating a potentially explosive offensive showdown.

Overall, while both starting pitchers are struggling, the Brewers' superior offense and bullpen, ranked 10th, could be the deciding factors. Still, the Rockies' underdog status might provide a surprisingly competitive game at Coors Field.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Colin Rea has relied on his slider 6.3% more often this season (17%) than he did last season (10.7%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Christian Yelich has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.9-mph to 96.8-mph over the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Milwaukee Brewers have been the 5th-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in future games

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Dakota Hudson’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2089 rpm) has been a significant increase over than his seasonal rate (2035 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Elias Diaz has been lucky this year. His .343 rate has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .281.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Colorado's 88.6-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in Major League Baseball: #21 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 51 games (+12.45 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 74 games (+7.60 Units / 8% ROI)
• Willy Adames has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 22 games (+7.80 Units / 33% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 6.46 vs Colorado Rockies 5.98

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