Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds Pick & Prediction – 4/11/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Overview

• Date: April 11, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers
  • Nick Martinez - Reds
• Run Line: Brewers -1.5 135, Reds 1.5 -155
• Money Line: Brewers -125, Reds 105
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -115

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Milwaukee Brewers - 53%
• Cincinnati Reds - 47%

Projected Win %:

• Milwaukee Brewers - 57.58%
• Cincinnati Reds - 42.42%

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Game Preview & Prediction

In a National League Central matchup, the Cincinnati Reds will take on the Milwaukee Brewers at Great American Ball Park. The Reds, with a record of 6-6, are having an average season so far. On the other hand, the Brewers are off to a great start with a record of 8-3.

The Reds are projected to start right-handed pitcher Nick Martinez, who has had a tough start to the season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Martinez is ranked 178th among starting pitchers in MLB, suggesting he has struggled. In his two starts this year, Martinez has yet to record a win and has an ERA of 7.20. However, his peripheral indicators, such as his xFIP of 5.07, indicate that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward.

The Brewers will counter with their right-handed pitcher Freddy Peralta, who is having an outstanding season. Peralta is ranked as the 6th best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. He has started two games, recording a win-loss record of 1-0 and an ERA of 3.09. His peripherals, such as his SIERA and xERA, suggest that he has been pitching even better than his ERA indicates.

In terms of offense, the Reds rank 10th best in MLB this season, while the Brewers rank 3rd. The Reds have been successful in stealing bases, ranking 1st in the league, while the Brewers have struggled with their team batting average, ranking 27th.

Based on the current odds, the Brewers are favored to win this game, with an implied win probability of 53%. However, the Reds are not far behind, with a 47% implied win probability.

In this matchup, the Reds' offense will be facing a high-strikeout pitcher in Freddy Peralta, which could give him the advantage. On the other hand, the Brewers' offense will be up against a low-walk pitcher in Nick Martinez, potentially negating one of their strengths.

Overall, this game promises to be a close contest between two division rivals. The Reds will be looking to improve their record and continue their average season, while the Brewers aim to solidify their strong start. With the pitching matchup and the offensive capabilities of both teams, expect an exciting game at Great American Ball Park.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Freddy Peralta projects as the 7th-best SP in baseball right now as it relates to his strikeout ability, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Jackson Chourio is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen profiles as the 5th-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense grades out as the 12th-strongest among all the teams playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

In today's game, Will Benson is at a disadvantage facing the league's 11th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.9% rate (97th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 89 of their last 152 games (+15.55 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 94 games (+9.05 Units / 7% ROI)
• Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.75 Units / 28% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers 4.91 vs Cincinnati Reds 3.93

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.