Milwaukee Brewers at Boston Red Sox Pick & Prediction – 5/24/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Boston Red Sox Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 24, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryse Wilson - Brewers
  • Kutter Crawford - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

Kutter Crawford is projected to start on the mound for the Red Sox. Crawford is a right-handed pitcher and is considered above average according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. He has started 10 games this year, with a win/loss record of 2-2 and an impressive ERA of 2.17. However, his 3.98 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky this season and could regress in future performances.

Bryse Wilson is projected to start for the Brewers. Wilson is also a right-handed pitcher, but according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, he is one of the worst pitchers in MLB. He has made 12 appearances out of the bullpen this year, with a win/loss record of 2-1 and an ERA of 2.79. Similar to Crawford, Wilson's 4.57 xFIP indicates that he may have been fortunate this season and could see a decline in performance going forward.

The Red Sox offense ranks as the 10th best in MLB this season, while the Brewers offense ranks 5th. However, the Red Sox have the advantage in team batting average, ranking 3rd compared to the Brewers' 27th ranking. The Brewers have a slight edge in stolen bases, ranking 10th compared to the Red Sox's 16th ranking.

In their last games, the Red Sox defeated the Rays with an 8-5 score, while the Brewers lost to the Marlins with a 1-0 score. The Red Sox were underdogs in their last game, with a closing Moneyline price of +125, while the Brewers had a closing Moneyline price of -130, indicating that their last game was expected to be a close one.

THE BAT X projects the Red Sox as the favorite for this game, with a projected win probability of 56%. The Brewers, on the other hand, are considered underdogs with a projected win probability of 44%. Based on the current odds, the Red Sox have a high implied team total of 5.02 runs, while the Brewers have a slightly lower implied team total of 4.48 runs.

With the pitching matchup and offensive rankings, this game has the potential to be a close one. The Red Sox will look to continue their success at home, while the Brewers aim to bounce back from their recent loss. It will be an exciting game to watch as both teams battle it out on the field.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Tallying 80.6 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Bryse Wilson places him the 12th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Extreme flyball bats like Christian Yelich generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Kutter Crawford.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Milwaukee Brewers today has an estimated true talent wOBA of .313, which is quite a bit worse than their actual wOBA of .326 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Kutter Crawford has gone to his non-fastballs 5.4% more often this year (66.8%) than he did last season (61.4%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Tyler O'Neill has strong power (96th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (28.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Bryse Wilson struggles to strike batters out (18th percentile K%) — great news for O'Neill.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The Boston Red Sox bullpen projects as the 8th-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 38 games (+9.70 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 40 games (+6.50 Units / 15% ROI)
• William Contreras has hit the Runs Over in 28 of his last 48 games (+8.65 Units / 17% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.99 vs Boston Red Sox 5.47

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.