Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Orioles Pick & Prediction – 4/12/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Baltimore Orioles Overview

• Date: April 12, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers
  • Tyler Wells - Orioles
• Run Line: Brewers 1.5 -215, Orioles -1.5 185
• Money Line: Brewers 100, Orioles -120
• Total (Over/Under):8 -110

Milwaukee Brewers vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Milwaukee Brewers - 48%
• Baltimore Orioles - 52%

Projected Win %:

• Milwaukee Brewers - 46.3%
• Baltimore Orioles - 53.7%

Milwaukee Brewers vs Baltimore Orioles Game Preview & Prediction

The Baltimore Orioles will face off against the Milwaukee Brewers on April 12, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. As the home team, the Orioles will look to continue their impressive season with a record of 8-4 so far. The Brewers, as the away team, have also been performing well this season with a record of 8-3.

The Orioles are projected to start right-handed pitcher Tyler Wells, who has shown promise in his two starts this year. Although his win-loss record stands at 0-1, his 4.76 ERA is below average. However, his 3.76 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and could perform better going forward. Wells is expected to pitch an average of 5.6 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs and striking out 5.3 batters.

On the other hand, the Brewers will send right-handed pitcher Freddy Peralta to the mound. Peralta has been exceptional this season with a 1-0 record and a 3.09 ERA. His advanced stats, such as his 2.39 SIERA and 2.33 xERA, suggest that he has been even better than his impressive ERA indicates. Peralta's projections for this game are a 5.5 inning average with 2.2 earned runs allowed and 6.5 strikeouts.

Offensively, the Orioles have been solid this season, ranking 18th in MLB. Their team batting average is 14th in the league, while their home run and stolen base rankings are 17th and 17th, respectively. The Brewers, on the other hand, have been exceptional offensively, ranking 4th in MLB. Despite a low team batting average ranking of 27th, they have displayed power with a 22nd-ranked team home run total and a strong stolen base ranking of 10th.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Orioles rank 15th while the Brewers rank 7th according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. This implies that both teams possess average to above-average bullpens.

Looking at the betting odds, the Orioles are favored with a -120 moneyline, giving them a 52% implied win probability. The Brewers, with a +100 moneyline, have a 48% implied win probability. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Orioles with a 54% win probability, indicating a close game.

Overall, this game presents an intriguing matchup between two teams having strong seasons. With the Orioles' solid offense and the Brewers' dominant pitching, it should be an exciting contest at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The Baltimore Orioles have 7 bats in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage against Freddy Peralta in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

In the past 14 days, William Contreras has averaged an impressive 99.2-mph exit velocity on his flyballs, an advanced indicator of home run potential.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Among all the teams today, the 4th-weakest outfield defense is that of the Baltimore Orioles.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Mountcastle in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 88 of their last 145 games (+27.20 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 43 games (+12.00 Units / 21% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers 4.05 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.1

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.