Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Orioles Best Bet – 4/14/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Baltimore Orioles Overview

• Date: April 14, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Colin Rea - Brewers
  • Corbin Burnes - Orioles
• Run Line: Brewers 1.5 -130, Orioles -1.5 110
• Money Line: Brewers 160, Orioles -185
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

Milwaukee Brewers vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Milwaukee Brewers - 37%
• Baltimore Orioles - 63%

Projected Win %:

• Milwaukee Brewers - 29.72%
• Baltimore Orioles - 70.28%

Milwaukee Brewers vs Baltimore Orioles Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly-anticipated matchup, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on April 14, 2024. The Orioles will look to bounce back after a tough loss to the Brewers in their last meeting. The game is the third in the series between these two teams and promises to be an exciting interleague showdown.

The Orioles, with a season record of 8-6, have been having a good season so far. Led by their promising young roster, they have shown great potential. The Brewers, on the other hand, have been exceptional with a record of 10-3, making them one of the top teams in MLB this season. Their strong start suggests they are having a great season.

The Orioles are projected to start the elite right-handed pitcher Corbin Burnes. Burnes has been outstanding this year, boasting an impressive 2-0 record with a remarkable 1.93 ERA. However, his 2.82 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances. The Brewers, on the other hand, are projected to start right-handed pitcher Colin Rea, who has had a solid season thus far.

In terms of offense, the Brewers have been one of the most potent lineups in MLB, ranking second overall. However, their batting average of .365 ranks low among teams. The Orioles offense has shown promise, ranking 18th overall, with their best hitter Gunnar Henderson leading the charge.

Looking at the projection models, the Orioles are considered a massive favorite in this game, with a projected win probability of 70% according to THE BAT X. This contradicts the current betting market odds, where the Orioles are favored with an implied win probability of 63%. Based on these projections, there may be value in betting on the Orioles.

Both teams have solid bullpens, with the Brewers ranking ninth and the Orioles ranking 17th according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. This suggests that the game could come down to the starting pitching and offensive performances.

With a game total of 8.5 runs, the projections indicate that the Orioles could score an average of 5.34 runs, while the Brewers may score 3.56 runs. This further supports the notion that the Orioles have the upper hand in this matchup.

As the Orioles look to bounce back from their previous loss, they'll rely on Corbin Burnes to continue his stellar performance. However, the Brewers have been off to a hot start and will be determined to maintain their winning ways. With the projection models favoring the Orioles, this game promises to be an exciting showdown between two talented teams.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Out of every team playing today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the the Milwaukee Brewers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Bashing 3 long-balls over the last 7 days, William Contreras has been on fire in recent games.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

William Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Compared to the average pitcher, Corbin Burnes has been granted an above-average leash since the start of last season, tallying an additional 5.8 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Milwaukee's #2-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Anthony Santander, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Adley Rutschman (the Orioles's expected catcher today) grades out as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Brewers vs Orioles Prediction: Brewers 3.56 - Orioles 5.34

Get daily MLB picks here.