Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves Best Bet – 8/7/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves Details

• Date: August 7, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers
  • Chris Sale - Braves

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

As the Milwaukee Brewers visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves on August 7, 2024, this matchup carries significant weight for both teams. The Braves, currently sitting at 60-52, are in a competitive position, looking to climb up the standings, while the Brewers, with a record of 63-49, are striving for a strong finish as they chase a division title. In their previous game, the Brewers put on a remarkable display, winning decisively and showcasing their potential to compete against a tough opponent.

On the mound, the Braves are projected to start Chris Sale, who has been nothing short of spectacular this season. Ranked as the 5th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, Sale boasts an impressive 13-3 record and an exceptional ERA of 2.71. His ability to limit walks (5.8 BB%) could prove crucial against a patient Brewers lineup that ranks 3rd in MLB for walks. Conversely, Freddy Peralta takes the hill for the Brewers, holding a solid but less impressive 6-6 record with an ERA of 3.89. While Peralta is a competent pitcher, he may find it challenging to keep up with Sale's elite performance.

The Braves offense, although only ranked 15th in MLB, has shown flashes of power, ranking 10th in home runs. Matt Olson has been their standout hitter recently, contributing significantly over the last week. In contrast, the Brewers boast a strong batting average, ranking 5th in the league, but they have been inconsistent in power, placing 20th in home runs.

With the game total set at an average 8.0 runs, the projections favor the Braves to score around 4.93 runs, suggesting they have the offensive edge in this contest. As the Braves look to capitalize on their recent momentum and Sale's elite form, this matchup promises to be a thrilling encounter in the National League.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Freddy Peralta’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2391 rpm) has been quite a bit lower than than his seasonal rate (2446 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

In terms of his home runs, Andruw Monasterio has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His 5.8 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been deflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 12.1.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Milwaukee Brewers collectively rank 4th- overall in the majors this year when it comes to the maximum exit velocity of all of the baseballs their [HITTER}s have hit.

• If a player can hit the ball hard even once, it has great predictive power over his ability to do it again. If he's never hit the ball hard, it's a sign of a lack of power.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Chris Sale has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 6.0 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Orlando Arcia has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (89% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Jarred Kelenic hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 67 of their last 109 games (+26.15 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 60 of their last 108 games (+14.45 Units / 12% ROI)
• Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Under in 30 of his last 43 games (+13.70 Units / 22% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.32 vs Atlanta Braves 4.9

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