Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Prediction, Odds & Picks – 9/12/2024

• Date: September 12, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Darren McCaughan - Marlins
  • Mitchell Parker - Nationals

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

As the Washington Nationals prepare to host the Miami Marlins on September 12, 2024, both teams are enduring disappointing seasons, with the Nationals sitting at 65-80 and the Marlins at 54-92. Despite their struggles, the Nationals find themselves as significant favorites in this matchup, reflecting their higher projected team total of 5.09 runs, compared to the Marlins' 3.91.

The Nationals are set to start Mitchell Parker, who has had an inconsistent year. Despite ranking 158th among starting pitchers in MLB, Parker's 4.43 ERA is misleading; his 3.89 FIP suggests he may have been unlucky and could turn things around soon. He will face Darren McCaughan, who has struggled mightily with a 7.40 ERA and ranks among the worst pitchers in the league. This matchup certainly favors Parker, especially considering that the Marlins' offense ranks 29th overall in MLB.

In their most recent game, the Nationals showcased a glimpse of their potential by beating the Braves, although they are still seeking consistency. The Nationals’ offense has been particularly weak in hitting home runs, ranking 29th, which may play into McCaughan’s advantage as he tends to allow fly balls. However, with Parker on the mound and the Marlins' low walk rate, this game could be an opportunity for the Nationals to capitalize on their opponent's weaknesses.

While the Marlins have shown some life recently with Otto Lopez hitting .393 over the last week, their overall lack of power combined with a struggling bullpen puts them at a disadvantage. As the game total is set at 9.0 runs, bettors should consider the Nationals’ edge, especially with Parker looking to deliver a strong performance at home.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

The Washington Nationals have 6 hitters in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage against Darren McCaughan in this matchup, which is especially precarious given his large platoon split.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The Miami Marlins have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Norby, David Hensley, Cristian Pache).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Keibert Ruiz is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Miami (#3-best of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals' bullpen ranks as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 62 of their last 136 games (+5.30 Units / 4% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 42 of their last 67 away games (+14.40 Units / 18% ROI)
• Mitchell Parker has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+8.95 Units / 52% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.12 vs Washington Nationals 5.02

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