Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Prediction – 6/15/2025

The Washington Nationals host the Miami Marlins on June 15, 2025, in what will be the third game of their series. Both teams are entrenched in disappointing seasons, with the Nationals currently holding a record of 30-40, while the Marlins sit at 27-41. After a tough loss yesterday, the Nationals remain focused on turning their fortunes around against a struggling Marlins squad.

On the mound, the Nationals are projected to start MacKenzie Gore, who has been a bright spot in an otherwise tough season. Gore’s 2.88 ERA speaks to his quality, especially compared to Marlins' Eury Perez, who is battling through a rough year with a staggering 12.00 ERA. Despite Gore's 3-5 record, his advanced-stat Power Ranking places him as the 34th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating his promise on the hill. Moreover, projections suggest he will average 5.9 innings while allowing just 2.2 earned runs today, showcasing his capability of keeping the game in check.

Conversely, Perez has only started one game this season and struggles with both earned runs and walks. His projected performance suggests he may pitch poorly again, as he is anticipated to allow 2.3 earned runs over 4.8 innings, alongside nearly 1.4 walks per game. The matchup heavily favors the Nationals' offense, ranked 21st overall but facing a Marlins unit that ranks even lower at 20th, particularly in home runs where they sit 27th. Given these dynamics and the fact that the Nationals are a strong betting favorite with a moneyline of -185, this matchup spots them as the team with a clearer path to victory.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Because groundball batters hold a significant advantage over flyball pitchers, Eury Perez and his 41.4% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a difficult spot today squaring off against 5 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Heriberto Hernandez is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 58% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Agustin Ramirez has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

MacKenzie Gore's higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (50% vs. 44.7% last season) figures to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Keibert Ruiz's average exit velocity has fallen off in recent games; his 86.3-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 81.3-mph over the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Washington's 8.2° launch angle (an advanced standard to study the ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the most groundball-inducing in baseball this year: #30 overall.

• A low launch angle generally means the hitter struggles to lift the ball into the air, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 40 games (+10.14 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 37 games (+7.95 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jose Tena has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+5.95 Units / 26% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Miami Marlins 3.61, Washington Nationals 4.18

• Date: June 15, 2025
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Eury Perez - Marlins
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals

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