Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Prediction – 6/14/2025

On June 14, 2025, the Washington Nationals will face off against the Miami Marlins at Nationals Park in a National League East matchup. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Nationals sitting at 30-39 and the Marlins at 26-41. In their last game on June 13, the Nationals lost a close one to the Marlins, 11-9, marking a tough stretch for both squads.

Trevor Williams is projected to start for the Nationals, bringing a 3-7 record and a troubling 5.91 ERA this season. While his numbers suggest he's had some bad luck—his 4.31 xFIP indicates he might perform better going forward—he has been inconsistent, projecting to allow 2.7 earned runs and 5.6 hits over an average of 5.3 innings. Given that Williams is a high-flyball pitcher facing a Marlins lineup that has hit only 59 home runs this year (5th least in MLB), this matchup could favor him if he can keep the ball in the park.

On the other side, Janson Junk will take the mound for the Marlins. Junk's projections are equally uninspiring, as he is expected to pitch 4.7 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs with a high number of hits (5.4). His last outing saw him give up 4 earned runs, indicating he might struggle against a Nationals offense that, despite ranking 21st in MLB, has shown some signs of life.

With a current moneyline of -140, the Nationals are seen as the betting favorites, and the projections suggest they could put up a solid team total of 4.81 runs. This game presents an opportunity for Washington to turn the tide after a tough loss, especially if their best hitters continue their recent performances.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

With 8 hitters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team's projected batting order, Janson Junk faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Xavier Edwards's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 87.1-mph EV last season has decreased to 84.6-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Miami Marlins have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Stowers, Dane Myers, Connor Norby).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Trevor Williams's fastball velocity has decreased 1.8 mph this season (87 mph) below where it was last year (88.8 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Extreme groundball batters like Josh Bell tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Janson Junk.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 51 games (+8.69 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 11 away games (+6.45 Units / 45% ROI)
• Agustin Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.05 Units / 22% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.66, Washington Nationals 4.97

• Date: June 14, 2025
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Janson Junk - Marlins
  • Trevor Williams - Nationals

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.