Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Prediction – 6/13/2025

The Washington Nationals and the Miami Marlins are set to kick off their three-game series at Nationals Park on June 13, 2025. Both teams have struggled this season, with the Nationals sitting at 30-38 and the Marlins at 25-41 in the National League East. The Nationals are projected to start Mitchell Parker, while the Marlins will counter with Edward Cabrera.

Mitchell Parker has had a challenging season, boasting a 4-6 record and an ERA of 4.44, which reflects an average performance but indicates he has been somewhat lucky, as evidenced by his 4.96 SIERA. Cabrera, on the other hand, comes into this matchup with a 2-2 record and a solid ERA of 3.99, indicating he has been performing well, albeit as a below-average pitcher overall.

Notably, Mitchell Parker is a high-flyball pitcher facing a Marlins lineup that has generated only 57 home runs this year, ranking them 5th least in MLB. This could give Parker an edge, as the Marlins may struggle to convert flyballs into home runs. Additionally, Edward Cabrera's high walk rate of 9.6% could present an opportunity for the Nationals’ offense, which ranks 18th in MLB but is known for being patient, with the 5th least walks in the league.

The projections suggest a close contest, with the Nationals having an implied team total of 4.71 runs. The game total is set at a high 9.0 runs, indicating a potentially high-scoring affair. Both teams will be looking to gain momentum in a season that has not gone as planned for either side.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Among all starters, Edward Cabrera's fastball velocity of 95.5 mph is in the 89th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Dane Myers has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 8.9% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the past two weeks.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The weakest projected batting order of the day in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the the Miami Marlins.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Mitchell Parker (35.2% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today's game with 4 GB hitters in Miami's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Keibert Ruiz's average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 86.3-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 81.3-mph over the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Washington's 93.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs makes them the #3 club in baseball this year by this standard.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 42 games (+8.19 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.65 Units / 36% ROI)
• Nate Lowe has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.20 Units / 35% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.41, Washington Nationals 4.4

• Date: June 13, 2025
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Edward Cabrera - Marlins
  • Mitchell Parker - Nationals

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