Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/31/2024

Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays Details

• Date: July 31, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Roddery Munoz - Marlins
  • Taj Bradley - Rays

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

As the Tampa Bay Rays and Miami Marlins prepare for the second game of their interleague series on July 31, 2024, at Tropicana Field, the contrast between their seasons couldn't be sharper. The Rays, currently sitting at 54-52, are having an average year but still hold their playoff hopes. On the other hand, the Marlins are languishing with a dismal 39-67 record, making their postseason dreams an extremely long shot.

The Rays will send right-hander Zach Eflin to the mound. Eflin has been steady this season, and facing a Marlins offense that ranks 29th in team home runs and 20th in batting average, he could be poised for a strong outing. Eflin's ability to limit home runs and control the strike zone will be crucial against a Miami lineup that struggles to generate power.

The Marlins' counter with Roddery Munoz, another righty, who will have his hands full against a Rays lineup that, while it ranks poorly in batting average (23rd) and home runs (26th), excels in stolen bases, ranking 4th. Munoz will need to keep runners off the bases to avoid Tampa Bay's speed becoming a factor.

Offensively, both teams have had standout performances recently. Brandon Lowe has been on fire for the Rays over the last week, boasting a .474 batting average and a whopping 1.565 OPS across six games. Meanwhile, Josh Bell has been a bright spot for the Marlins, hitting .440 with a 1.460 OPS over the same span, including four home runs.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Rays have a slight edge in this contest, largely due to the Marlins' offensive woes and the reliable pitching of Eflin. As the Rays look to capitalize on their home-field advantage, this game will be crucial for them to maintain momentum and stay relevant in the playoff race.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Roddery Munoz's 94.9-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 83rd percentile among all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Otto Lopez has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .252 figure is a good deal lower than his .306 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The 7.2% Barrel% of the Miami Marlins grades them out as the #24 club in the league this year by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Tallying 17.4 outs per GS this year on average, Taj Bradley places him the 81st percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Jose Caballero has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (96% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Yandy Diaz has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 63 of their last 102 games (+20.95 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 30 away games (+11.50 Units / 33% ROI)
• Brandon Lowe has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 26 games (+12.35 Units / 47% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 2.99 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.53

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