Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction – 6/6/2025

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face off against the Miami Marlins on June 6, 2025, at George M. Steinbrenner Field, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions. The Rays currently hold a record of 33-29 and are enjoying an above-average season, while the Marlins sit at 23-37, struggling significantly. This Interleague matchup marks the first game of the series, adding a layer of intrigue as both teams vie for momentum.

In their last game, the Rays got a 4-3 win over the Texas Rangers. Their offensive output has helped maintain their ranking as the 16th best offense in MLB, despite their average team batting average and home run rankings. The projections suggest that the Rays could be poised for a strong showing, with an implied team total of 5.30 runs for this matchup.

On the mound, Zack Littell is set to start for the Rays. Despite being ranked as the 151st best starting pitcher in MLB, he boasts a solid ERA of 3.86 this season, although his 5.13 FIP indicates he may have been fortunate in his performances. Littell's high flyball rate could work in his favor against a Marlins lineup that ranks 27th in home runs, suggesting they might struggle to capitalize on his flyballs.

Edward Cabrera is projected to take the mound for the Marlins. With a 4.14 ERA and a below-average performance overall, Cabrera's struggles could further hinder Miami's chances. The Marlins' offense, ranking 20th in the league, has been lackluster, and their recent form does not inspire confidence.

With the Rays as the betting favorites at -165, the stage is set for an intriguing matchup where the Rays look to capitalize on their home-field advantage and the Marlins aim to turn their season around.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Given that groundball pitchers have a substantial advantage over groundball batters, Edward Cabrera and his 46.1% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong spot in today's game going up against 3 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Xavier Edwards's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 87.1-mph figure last year has dropped to 84.7-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Miami Marlins bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Zack Littell's high usage percentage of his secondary pitches (61.9% this year) ought to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Typically, batters like Yandy Diaz who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Edward Cabrera.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 59 games (+10.35 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games (+6.55 Units / 23% ROI)
• Jose Caballero has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+7.00 Units / 175% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.77, Tampa Bay Rays 4.6

• Date: June 6, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Edward Cabrera - Marlins
  • Zack Littell - Rays

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.