Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick – 6/8/2025

As the Tampa Bay Rays host the Miami Marlins on June 8, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Rays, currently holding a record of 34-30, are experiencing an above-average season and are looking to strengthen their playoff positioning. Meanwhile, the Marlins sit at 24-38, struggling significantly this season and in need of a turnaround.

Drew Rasmussen is slated to take the mound for Tampa Bay. The right-hander has established himself as one of the league's top pitchers, currently ranked 17th among starting pitchers according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. With an impressive ERA of 2.14 this year, Rasmussen projects to pitch around 5.5 innings while allowing approximately 1.9 earned runs, solidifying him as a crucial asset for the Rays.

On the other hand, Connor Gillispie will toe the rubber for the Marlins. Unfortunately for Miami, Gillispie has struggled mightily this season with an ERA of 8.65 and a win/loss record of 0-3. His projections indicate that he could pitch only 4.4 innings, allowing about 2.7 earned runs. This poses a challenge against a Rays offense, ranked 16th in MLB, yet bolstered by their 1st ranking in stolen bases.

With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, the Rays enter as significant favorites, indicated by a moneyline of -245. Their high implied team total of 5.13 runs aligns with projections suggesting that Rasmussen's matchup against a Marlins offense that ranks 27th in home runs could work in their favor. Meanwhile, Miami’s low implied team total of 3.37 runs emphasizes their struggles this season. Expect a competitive game, but the odds favor the Rays to continue their winning ways against a struggling Marlins squad.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Eric Wagaman is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Miami Marlins bullpen grades out as the 5th-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Drew Rasmussen's 2492-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 91st percentile among all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jake Mangum's average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 86.6-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 80.8-mph over the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 43 games (+10.75 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 away games (+5.40 Units / 43% ROI)
• Agustin Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 away games (+8.50 Units / 94% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Miami Marlins 3.82, Tampa Bay Rays 5.42

• Date: June 8, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Connor Gillispie - Marlins
  • Drew Rasmussen - Rays

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