Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Pick & Preview – 7/30/2024

Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays Details

• Date: July 30, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Edward Cabrera - Marlins
  • Jeffrey Springs - Rays

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

As the Tampa Bay Rays and Miami Marlins gear up for their interleague matchup on July 30, 2024, at Tropicana Field, both teams look to turn their fortunes around. The Rays, who have a record of 54-52, aim to solidify their season and make a push in the standings. Meanwhile, the Marlins, with a dismal 39-67 record, are struggling mightily this year.

The Rays are set to start Jeffrey Springs on the mound. Springs, a left-handed pitcher, is ranked as the #64 best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, making him an above-average arm. Springs projects to pitch 5.7 innings while allowing 2.1 earned runs on average—metrics that indicate a solid outing. However, his projected 5.0 hits and 1.1 walks allowed per game suggest he could face some challenges.

The Marlins will counter with Edward Cabrera, a right-handed pitcher. Cabrera's season has been rough, evidenced by his 7.04 ERA and a 1-3 win/loss record in 9 starts. Despite these numbers, his 3.91 xFIP suggests he has been unlucky and might perform better in future starts. Cabrera projects to pitch 4.9 innings and allow 2.2 earned runs, but his high walk rate of 2.5 per game could be a concern.

Offensively, the Rays rank 23rd in team batting average and 26th in home runs, indicating a struggle for consistency at the plate. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking 4th in MLB. Brandon Lowe has been a bright spot recently, hitting .474 with 2 home runs and a 1.565 OPS over the last week.

On the flip side, the Marlins' offense ranks 29th in both overall performance and home runs, highlighting their difficulties in generating runs. Josh Bell has been a rare highlight, batting .440 with 4 home runs and a 1.460 OPS over the past week.

Both bullpens are relatively average, with the Rays ranked 14th and the Marlins 15th in MLB. Given the current odds, the Rays are favored with a moneyline of -165, suggesting an implied win probability of 60%. The Marlins, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +145 and an implied win probability of 40%.

With the game total set at a low 7.5 runs, expect a tight contest dominated by pitching. The Rays' stronger record and above-average starting pitcher give them an edge, but the Marlins' potential for positive regression from Cabrera could make things interesting.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Tallying 12.8 outs per game per started this year on average, Edward Cabrera places in the 4th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Nick Fortes has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.5-mph dropping to 77.6-mph in the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 7.2% Barrel% of the Miami Marlins grades them out as the #23 club in baseball this year by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Jeffrey Springs's high utilization percentage of his secondary pitches (59.2% since the start of last season) ought to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.329) implies that Jose Siri has had bad variance on his side this year with his .285 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Yandy Diaz has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 62 of their last 100 games (+21.10 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 48 of their last 83 games (+9.55 Units / 10% ROI)
• Josh Lowe has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 36 games (+8.55 Units / 16% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 3.59 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.05

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