Miami Marlins VS St. Louis Cardinals Betting Pick & Preview – 04/06/2024

Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals Overview

• Date: April 6, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Trevor Rogers - Marlins
  • Steven Matz - Cardinals
• Run Line: Marlins 1.5 -165, Cardinals -1.5 140
• Money Line: Marlins 125, Cardinals -150
• Total (Over/Under):8 -110

Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Miami Marlins - 43%
• St. Louis Cardinals - 57%

Projected Win %:

• Miami Marlins - 44.91%
• St. Louis Cardinals - 55.09%

Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals Game Preview & Prediction

The St. Louis Cardinals are set to host the Miami Marlins at Busch Stadium on April 6, 2024. This National League matchup will see the Cardinals as the home team, while the Marlins will be the away team.

The Cardinals currently hold a 4-4 record this season, indicating an average start to their campaign. On the other hand, the Marlins have struggled with a 0-8 record, making it a tough season for them so far.

The Cardinals are projected to start left-handed pitcher Steven Matz, who has had a decent start to the year. Matz has started one game, with an ERA of 3.38. However, his xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress going forward.

The Marlins, on the other hand, will send left-handed pitcher Trevor Rogers to the mound. Rogers has struggled with an ERA of 7.20 in his lone start this season. However, his xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and could perform better in the future.

In terms of offense, the Cardinals rank as the 30th best team in MLB, while the Marlins rank 27th. However, the Cardinals have a higher team batting average, ranking 7th in the league, compared to the Marlins who rank 3rd. The Cardinals also excel in the home run department, ranking 5th, while the Marlins struggle, ranking 28th.

When it comes to the bullpen, the Cardinals have one of the best units in the league, ranking 2nd according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. The Marlins, on the other hand, have a less impressive bullpen, ranking 24th.

Based on the current odds, the Cardinals are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -150, giving them an implied win probability of 57%. The Marlins, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +125 and an implied win probability of 43%.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Trevor Rogers is expected to record an average of 17 outs in this outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

The Miami Marlins bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Steven Matz in the 77th percentile when estimating his strikeout skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mike Siani in the 6th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Nolan Arenado pulls many of his flyballs (43% — 100th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 6th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 72 games at home (+5.15 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 67 away games (+12.65 Units / 17% ROI)
• Victor Scott II has hit the Singles Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.40 Units / 43% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Miami Marlins 3.68 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.87

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.