Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants Prediction & Picks 8/30/2024

• Date: August 30, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Adam Oller - Marlins
  • Blake Snell - Giants

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

On August 30, 2024, the San Francisco Giants will host the Miami Marlins at Oracle Park in a National League showdown. The Giants are currently in 4th place in the NL West, sporting a record of 67-68, while the Marlins sit in last place in the NL East with a dismal 49-85 record. This matchup is particularly pivotal for the Giants, who are looking to capitalize on their home field advantage against a struggling Marlins team that has underperformed throughout the season.

Blake Snell is projected to start for the Giants. He's had a rough campaign with a 2-3 record and a solid 3.76 ERA. However, his 2.79 xERA suggests he may have been a bit unlucky, and he projects well for today's outing, averaging 5.9 innings pitched with only 1.7 earned runs allowed. Facing him will be Adam Oller, who has struggled significantly this season, recording a 5.23 ERA and a high 13.0 BB%. Given that the Giants rank 6th in MLB for drawing walks, they could exploit Oller's control issues effectively.

The Giants' offensive performance has been average, ranked 15th overall in MLB, and will look to improve their power numbers, currently ranked 23rd in home runs. Meanwhile, the Marlins' offense has been dismal, sitting at 29th, and they average the fewest walks in the league, which could play into Snell's hands.

Given San Francisco's strong bullpen, ranked 1st in MLB, combined with a low game total of 7.0 runs, this presents a favorable opportunity for the Giants to secure a win against a Marlins team that continues to struggle on both sides of the diamond.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Adam Oller is projected to strikeout 4.2 bats in this game, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Derek Hill has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs since the start of last season; his 16.1 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a fair amount higher than his 9.6 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Miami Marlins have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Norby, Cristian Pache, David Hensley, Derek Hill).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Blake Snell's curveball percentage has jumped by 7.5% from last year to this one (19.8% to 27.3%) .

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Tyler Fitzgerald is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The San Francisco Giants bullpen grades out as the best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 58 games at home (+9.00 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 46 games (+17.05 Units / 30% ROI)
• Jonah Bride has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 13 away games (+31.00 Units / 238% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 2.9 vs San Francisco Giants 4.81

Get daily MLB picks here.