Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants Prediction – 6/26/2025

The San Francisco Giants will host the Miami Marlins on June 26, 2025, in a matchup that sees the Giants looking to build on their solid season with a record of 44-36. In contrast, the Marlins are struggling at 33-45. The Marlins have won three straight games despite their poor record, including their last two against the Giants.

On the mound, the Giants will start Hayden Birdsong, who has had a decent year with a 3-1 record and a solid 3.25 ERA. However, advanced metrics suggest he might have been a bit lucky, as his 4.06 xFIP indicates potential for regression. Birdsong's high flyball rate could work in his favor against a Marlins offense that ranks near the bottom in home runs, sitting 4th least in MLB with just 66 long balls this season.

The Marlins will counter with Janson Junk, who has a strong 2-0 record and an impressive 2.60 ERA. Yet, like Birdsong, he may also be due for a downturn, as his 4.20 xERA suggests he's been somewhat fortunate. Junk's ability to limit walks (1.8 BB%) could be critical against a Giants lineup that ranks 3rd in the league in walks.

Offensively, the Giants rank 23rd in MLB, struggling to find consistency, while the Marlins are slightly better at 21st. Despite their offensive woes, the Giants' bullpen ranks 2nd in MLB, which could provide a significant advantage late in the game.

With a game total set at 7.5 runs, bettors might want to consider the Giants as they look to capitalize on their favorable matchup, especially given their strong bullpen and the Marlins' offensive challenges.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Janson Junk was on point in his last GS and conceded 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Extreme flyball hitters like Jesus Sanchez are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Hayden Birdsong.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Miami Marlins bullpen projects as the 7th-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Hayden Birdsong is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.7% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #28 HR venue among all parks in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Willy Adames has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (79% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Heliot Ramos has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 59 games (+9.05 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 35 games (+12.15 Units / 32% ROI)
• Agustin Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+5.45 Units / 18% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.4, San Francisco Giants 4.75

• Date: June 26, 2025
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Janson Junk - Marlins
  • Hayden Birdsong - Giants

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