Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants Prediction – 6/25/2025

On June 25, 2025, the San Francisco Giants will host the Miami Marlins at Oracle Park in what is shaping up to be a pivotal matchup for both teams. The Giants, currently sitting at 44-35, are enjoying a solid season and are looking to capitalize on their strong form. But as they face a Marlins team that is struggling at 32-45, the Giants will be looking to rebound from a loss to Miami in their last outing.

This matchup features a clash of pitchers that could heavily influence the outcome. San Francisco is projected to start Logan Webb, who is ranked as the 4th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Webb has been exceptional, with projections indicating he will pitch around 6.8 innings while allowing just 1.9 earned runs, striking out 6.4 batters. However, he has been prone to allowing hits and walks, which could be a potential area of vulnerability.

On the other side, Miami’s Edward Cabrera is having a less impressive season. He is projected to pitch only 4.9 innings and allow 2.4 earned runs, with below-average strikeout and high walk rates. This disparity in pitching talent could spell trouble for the Marlins as they face a Giants lineup that has shown promise.

The Giants are currently favored with a moneyline of -220, reflecting a strong implied team total of 4.14 runs, while the Marlins are seen as underdogs with a meager implied total of 2.86 runs. Given the current form of both teams and the pitching matchup, the Giants appear well-positioned to secure another victory in this series.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Given that groundball pitchers struggle the most against flyball hitters, Edward Cabrera (46.1% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today's game with 3 FB hitters in San Francisco's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Xavier Edwards's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 87.1-mph EV last year has fallen off to 85.1-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Miami Marlins bullpen projects as the 7th-worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Logan Webb has relied on his slider 7.1% more often this year (28.4%) than he did last season (21.3%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Extreme flyball bats like Wilmer Flores generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Edward Cabrera.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Heliot Ramos has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games (+9.80 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 41 games (+13.95 Units / 31% ROI)
• Casey Schmitt has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+7.55 Units / 19% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Miami Marlins 2.98, San Francisco Giants 4.4

• Date: June 25, 2025
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Edward Cabrera - Marlins
  • Logan Webb - Giants

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.