Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants Prediction – 6/24/2025

On June 24, 2025, the San Francisco Giants will host the Miami Marlins at Oracle Park in what marks the first game of their series. The Giants currently sit at 44-34, reflecting a solid season, while the Marlins struggle at 31-45, indicating a tough year. San Francisco is coming off a strong performance, but there's a lot at stake for both teams as they look to improve their standings.

Giants' ace Justin Verlander is projected to take the mound. Despite his 0-4 record this season, his 4.45 ERA is considered average, and he has shown signs of potential, especially against a Marlins offense that ranks 26th in home runs. Verlander's high flyball rate may work in his favor, as Miami has struggled to generate power, evidenced by their paltry 66 home runs this season, the 4th least in MLB.

Cal Quantrill, starting for the Marlins, has had a rough go of it with a 5.68 ERA and a 3-7 record. However, his projections suggest he could fare better moving forward, as he has been somewhat unlucky this season. Both pitchers are right-handers, which adds a layer of familiarity to this matchup.

With the Giants favored at -180 and an implied team total of 4.54 runs, they look to leverage their home advantage and capitalize on Miami's struggles. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating a potentially competitive matchup, but one that leans towards the Giants' favor.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Cal Quantrill has used his cutter 6.6% more often this year (20%) than he did last year (13.4%).

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Extreme flyball hitters like Jesus Sanchez generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Justin Verlander.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Agustin Ramirez has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

The San Francisco Giants infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Jung Hoo Lee is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 97% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Projected catcher Patrick Bailey projects as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 59 games (+11.05 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 42 games (+10.95 Units / 23% ROI)
• Agustin Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.30 Units / 28% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.03, San Francisco Giants 4.78

• Date: June 24, 2025
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cal Quantrill - Marlins
  • Justin Verlander - Giants

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