Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction & Picks 9/9/2024

• Date: September 9, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Valente Bellozo - Marlins
  • Paul Skenes - Pirates

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to host the Miami Marlins on September 9, 2024, both teams enter the matchup struggling to find their footing this season. The Pirates sit at 67-76, indicating a below-average campaign, while the Marlins are languishing at 54-89, marking one of the worst records in the league. This game marks the start of their series, and each team will look to gain an edge as they head into the final weeks of the regular season.

The Pirates will send elite right-hander Paul Skenes to the mound, who boasts a 9-2 record and a stellar 2.13 ERA this season. Skenes has been exceptional, ranking as the 1st best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. He projects to allow only 1.6 earned runs and strike out 7.4 batters over an average of 6.0 innings today. His high groundball rate plays well against a Marlins offense that has managed only 85 home runs this year, the 2nd fewest in MLB.

On the other hand, the Marlins will counter with Valente Bellozo, whose 3.78 ERA looks decent but conceals a troubling 5.70 xFIP, suggesting he’s had some luck this year. Bellozo's ability to pitch deep into games has been subpar, averaging just 4.6 innings per start. This disparity could spell trouble for Miami, especially given the Pirates’ offensive struggles, ranking 28th overall in MLB.

Despite the Pirates’ offensive inefficiencies, they are favorites in this matchup with a moneyline of -250, indicating a high implied team total of 4.55 runs. Given Skenes' elite status on the mound and the Marlins' lack of power, the Pirates have a significant advantage heading into this game.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Valente Bellozo's high utilization percentage of his secondary pitches (60.2% this year) ought to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Jesus Sanchez has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 12.9% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the past 7 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Miami Marlins bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Paul Skenes's 98.2-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 100th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Oneil Cruz has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 95.3-mph to 98.5-mph over the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Andrew McCutchen pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.7% — 79th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 9th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 59 of their last 103 games (+13.95 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 62 away games (+13.55 Units / 18% ROI)
• Yasmani Grandal has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+12.70 Units / 141% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 3.08 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.13

Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.