Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction – 6/9/2025

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face the Miami Marlins on June 9, 2025, at PNC Park, both teams are struggling to find their footing this season. The Pirates sit with a record of 26-40, while the Marlins are slightly behind at 24-39, making this matchup a battle between two clubs looking to turn things around.

On the mound, Pittsburgh's Michael Burrows is projected to start. His current season has been underwhelming, as he holds a 1-1 record and an ERA of 5.27, ranking him 161st among MLB starters, indicating a rough patch. However, his 3.92 xFIP suggests that he may have been unlucky and could bounce back soon. Burrows is expected to pitch around 4.8 innings, projecting to allow approximately 2.5 earned runs, which could keep the game competitive.

On the other side, the Marlins will counter with Eury Perez, who ranks 63rd among MLB starters, signifying a solid performance this season. Perez's projections indicate he will pitch about 4.7 innings and allow roughly 2.3 earned runs. While his strikeout rate is average at 5.0, he does struggle with walks, averaging 1.4.

Offensively, the Pirates rank 27th in MLB for team batting average and home runs, making it difficult for their lineup to generate runs. In contrast, the Marlins have an average offensive ranking of 18th, but both teams are desperate for runs to improve their standings.

With the game total set at 8.0 runs and both teams showing vulnerabilities, it could be a close contest, with betting markets reflecting an evenly matched scenario. The Pirates' average implied team total of 4.00 runs mirrors that of the Marlins, suggesting that this matchup may come down to which pitching staff can minimize damage and seize opportunities.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Eury Perez is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.4% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #26 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Xavier Edwards's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 87.1-mph mark last year has fallen to 84.7-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Miami Marlins bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Because of his large reverse platoon split, Mike Burrows encounters a tough challenge going up against 6 hitters in the projected batting order who share the same handedness in today's game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Extreme groundball bats like Isiah Kiner-Falefa tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Eury Perez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

In today's game, Henry Davis is at a disadvantage facing the league's 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36% rate (91st percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 55 games (+12.10 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 33 games (+6.10 Units / 16% ROI)
• Jesus Sanchez has hit the RBIs Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+6.05 Units / 121% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.65, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.51

• Date: June 9, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Eury Perez - Marlins
  • Michael Burrows - Pirates

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