Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction – 6/10/2025

On June 10, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Miami Marlins at PNC Park for the second game of their series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Pirates sitting at 27-40 and the Marlins at 24-40. The Pirates recently faced off against the Marlins, extending their winning streak to four games in a row entering today's play by winning that matchup.

Pittsburgh will send Mitch Keller to the mound, who, despite a rough 1-8 record, has shown flashes of potential with a respectable 4.13 ERA. His 3.26 FIP suggests he has been unlucky, hinting at better performances ahead. However, he has struggled with walks, averaging 1.5 per game, which could be detrimental against a Marlins lineup that has been more productive recently.

Sandy Alcantara, on the other hand, is projected to start for Miami. With a 2-7 record and a dismal 7.89 ERA, Alcantara has been having a tough season. His low strikeout rate (16.9 K%) could be an issue against a Pirates offense that ranks 6th in the league in strikeouts. However, Alcantara's high groundball rate (52 GB%) may work in his favor, especially against a Pirates team that has hit only 46 home runs this season, ranking 29th overall.

The projections suggest that the Pirates have a higher implied team total of 4.50 runs, reflecting betting market confidence despite their struggles. With their offense ranking 27th in the league, they will need to capitalize on any opportunities against Alcantara, who has also been prone to allowing hits. The Game Total is set at an average 8.5 runs, indicating a potentially close contest. This matchup presents a chance for the Pirates to turn around their fortunes, especially with Keller's underlying stats suggesting he may be due for a breakthrough.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Xavier Edwards is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Pittsburgh (#1-best on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Miami Marlins bullpen grades out as the 4th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Throwing 92.7 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Mitch Keller places him the 80th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Ke'Bryan Hayes has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (52% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Henry Davis pulls many of his flyballs (35.9% — 91st percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 43 games (+9.45 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.00 Units / 47% ROI)
• Agustin Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (+7.60 Units / 190% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.66, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.32

• Date: June 10, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sandy Alcantara - Marlins
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates

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