Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pick – 6/11/2025

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to host the Miami Marlins on June 11, 2025, both teams are struggling to find their footing this season. The Pirates currently sit at 27-41, while the Marlins are just behind with a record of 25-40. Both teams are in the lower tier of the National League standings, making this matchup significant for pride more than postseason aspirations.

In their previous game, the Pirates faced off against the Marlins, with the Marlins securing the win in that game. The Pirates are projected to start Bailey Falter, who has had a mixed season with a 4-3 record and a solid ERA of 3.49, but his xFIP of 4.69 suggests he might have been riding his luck. His performance could be crucial, especially against a Marlins offense that ranks 26th in home runs this season.

On the other side, Cal Quantrill is set to take the mound for Miami. With a record of 3-6 and an ERA of 5.63, his struggles have been evident. Despite this, the projections indicate he might perform better than his numbers suggest, given his xFIP of 4.50, indicating some bad luck.

The Pirates' offense, ranked 27th in MLB, has been underwhelming, particularly in terms of power. However, they excel in stealing bases, ranking 5th overall, which could add an interesting dynamic to the game. Conversely, the Marlins hold a mid-tier position in batting average at 14th but have a lack of power, which could play into Falter's favor as a high-flyball pitcher.

With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, the Pirates are favored at -150 on the moneyline, suggesting a strong belief in their ability to secure a win at PNC Park. This matchup could be a crucial turning point for either team as they look to gain momentum moving forward.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Cal Quantrill's cut-fastball rate has risen by 5.8% from last season to this one (13.4% to 19.2%) .

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Connor Norby has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (60% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins' bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Among all the teams in action today, the best infield defense belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Oneil Cruz has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 97.5-mph average to last season's 95.3-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Andrew McCutchen pulls many of his flyballs (34.1% — 81st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 67 games (+11.65 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games (+7.70 Units / 25% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+5.50 Units / 15% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.64, Pittsburgh Pirates 5.02

• Date: June 11, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cal Quantrill - Marlins
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.