Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Pick & Preview – 9/11/2024

• Date: September 11, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jonathan Bermudez - Marlins
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

On September 11, 2024, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Miami Marlins at PNC Park for the third game of their series. The Pirates are currently sitting at 69-76, reflecting a below-average season, while the Marlins' struggles are evident with a 54-91 record, marking one of the worst seasons in the league. In their previous matchup, the Pirates secured a 6-4 victory over the Marlins, showcasing their ability to capitalize on their opponent's weaknesses.

Bailey Falter is projected to take the mound for the Pirates. Despite being ranked 231st among MLB starting pitchers, Falter's average ERA of 4.45 suggests he can hold his own, particularly against a Marlins lineup that ranks 29th in overall offensive production this season. With an average projection of 5.0 innings pitched and 2.5 earned runs allowed, Falter could find success against a team that has struggled to generate power, hitting only 133 home runs this year.

On the other side, Jonathan Bermudez will be starting for the Marlins. Although he has not started any games this season, his ERA of 5.79 from his limited appearances out of the bullpen does not inspire confidence. The projections indicate he will pitch an average of 3.9 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs, which might be challenging against a Pirates lineup that, while ranked 27th in overall offensive output, has shown flashes of potential.

With the Pirates being favored at a moneyline of -180 and an implied team total of 4.82 runs, they are expected to continue their recent success. Meanwhile, the Marlins, with a low implied total of 3.68 runs, will need to find a way to overcome their offensive struggles to keep this game competitive.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

The Miami Marlins outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-strongest among every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Otto Lopez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (80% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Miami Marlins have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Cristian Pache, David Hensley, Connor Norby).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Compared to league average, Bailey Falter has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an -8.1 fewer adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Rowdy Tellez can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 63 of their last 112 games (+13.65 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 60 games (+12.70 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jake Burger has hit the Home Runs Over in 15 of his last 48 games (+26.50 Units / 55% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.38 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.28

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