Miami Marlins VS New York Yankees Betting Pick & Preview – 4/8/2024

Miami Marlins vs New York Yankees Overview

• Date: April 8, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jesus Luzardo - Marlins
  • Nestor Cortes - Yankees
• Run Line: Marlins 1.5 -145, Yankees -1.5 125
• Money Line: Marlins 145, Yankees -165
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

Miami Marlins vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Miami Marlins - 40%
• New York Yankees - 60%

Projected Win %:

• Miami Marlins - 37.64%
• New York Yankees - 62.36%

Miami Marlins vs New York Yankees Game Preview & Prediction

In an exciting interleague matchup, the New York Yankees will host the Miami Marlins at Yankee Stadium on April 8, 2024. The Yankees, with a record of 8-2 this season, are having a great start to the year, while the Marlins have struggled with a 1-9 record, making this a mismatch on paper.

The Yankees, as the home team, will look to capitalize on their strong season and continue their winning ways. They are projected to start left-handed pitcher Nestor Cortes, who has had a solid start to the season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Cortes is ranked as the #71 best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating that he is above average.

On the other hand, the Marlins will send left-handed pitcher Jesus Luzardo to the mound. Luzardo, ranked as the #37 best starting pitcher in MLB, has shown promise despite the team's struggles.

Both pitchers have started two games this year, with Cortes holding a win/loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 6.30. However, his 4.79 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Luzardo has a similar win/loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 4.35, but his 3.28 xFIP indicates that he has also been unlucky and could improve in future outings.

The Yankees' offense ranks as the 13th best in MLB, while the Marlins' offense ranks 28th. Despite their lower ranking, the Marlins have shown strength in team batting average, ranking 3rd in the league. The Yankees, on the other hand, excel in home runs, ranking 8th.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Yankees have the 3rd best bullpen in MLB, while the Marlins' bullpen ranks 25th. This could give the Yankees an advantage in the later innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Yankees are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -160, giving them an implied win probability of 59%. The Marlins, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +135 and an implied win probability of 41%.

Overall, the Yankees have the advantage in this matchup, with a strong record, a solid starting pitcher, and a powerful offense. However, baseball is a game of surprises, and anything can happen on any given day. Fans can expect an exciting game as these two teams take the field.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Compared to the average pitcher, Jesus Luzardo has been given more leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, tallying an extra 3.2 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Extreme groundball hitters like Avisail Garcia are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Nestor Cortes.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

The Miami Marlins have 7 bats in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage over Nestor Cortes today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Jesus Luzardo will hold the platoon advantage against Anthony Rizzo in today's game.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The New York Yankees bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+6.60 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 30 away games (+10.25 Units / 31% ROI)
• Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.65 Units / 51% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Miami Marlins 3.9 vs New York Yankees 4.77

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