Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/13/2024

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Details

• Date: June 13, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Roddery Munoz - Marlins
  • Luis Severino - Mets

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets (29-37) are set to host the Miami Marlins (23-44) on June 13, 2024, at Citi Field in the third game of their series. The Mets, riding high off a 10-4 victory yesterday, are looking to extend their winning ways against a struggling Marlins team. This National League East matchup features two teams having disappointing seasons, with the Mets having a bad season and the Marlins faring even worse.

Luis Severino is projected to start for the Mets. Ranked #132 among starting pitchers by advanced stats, Severino's 3.25 ERA this season suggests he's been effective, though his 4.09 xFIP indicates some luck has been involved. He boasts a 4-2 record and recently pitched a complete game on June 5, allowing just one earned run over eight innings. Severino's high-groundball rate (52%) could be advantageous against a Marlins lineup that ranks last in MLB with 52 home runs.

Opposite him, the Marlins will send Roddery Munoz to the mound. Munoz has struggled mightily with a 5.95 ERA across his four starts but his 4.36 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit unlucky. Munoz is projected to allow 3.0 earned runs over 5.0 innings today, which doesn't bode well against a Mets offense ranked 13th in MLB for overall performance.

Offensively, Francisco Lindor has been the standout for the Mets, contributing 11 home runs and 39 runs this season. Over the past week, he's continued his strong play, recording a run in each of his last four games. For the Marlins, Jazz Chisholm has been their best hitter, though the team’s offense overall ranks 29th in MLB. Bryan De La Cruz adds some recent spark, hitting .316 with a 1.034 OPS over the last week.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Mets a 62% chance to win, aligning closely with their implied win probability of 64%. The Mets are favored to score around 5.02 runs, while the Marlins are projected at 4.08. Given the Mets’ recent form and the Marlins' struggles, a bet on New York seems justified.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

With 6 bats of the same handedness in the opposing team's projected lineup, Roddery Munoz figures to benefit from holding the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Since the start of last season, Jake Burger's 16.4% Barrel%, a reliable stat for measuring power, places him in the 98th percentile among his peers.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Miami Marlins bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Among all starting pitchers, Luis Severino's fastball velocity of 95.3 mph ranks in the 88th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

This season, there has been a decline in J.D. Martinez's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.07 ft/sec last year to 25.57 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Harrison Bader hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 26 games (+5.25 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 55 games (+7.15 Units / 11% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+8.15 Units / 33% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.08 vs New York Mets 5.02

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.