Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Prediction & Picks 8/17/2024

• Date: August 17, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Max Meyer - Marlins
  • Luis Severino - Mets

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Betting Preview

As the New York Mets prepare to host the Miami Marlins on August 17, 2024, at Citi Field, both teams are looking to assert their dominance in this National League East matchup. The Mets currently sit at 63-59, enjoying an above-average season, while the Marlins languish at 45-77, marking a dismal campaign. Notably, the Mets recently triumphed in yesterday's game against the Marlins, cementing their upper hand in this series.

Luis Severino, projected to start for the Mets, has had a mixed season, holding a 7-6 record and a 4.17 ERA. While his overall performance ranks him as the 155th best starting pitcher in MLB, he has been effective in keeping hitters grounded, boasting a 48% groundball rate. This could play to his advantage against a Marlins offense that has struggled to generate power, ranking 29th in home runs with just 85 long balls this season. Severino projects to pitch 5.9 innings, allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs, which suggests he may keep the Marlins at bay.

On the other side, Max Meyer, with a 3-2 record and a 5.20 ERA, has also had his share of challenges this season, ranking as a below-average pitcher. Despite a slightly better xFIP of 4.19, Meyer has shown inconsistency, projecting to allow 2.7 earned runs over 5.2 innings. This could be problematic against a Mets lineup that ranks 10th in MLB offensively, particularly excelling in hitting home runs, where they sit 4th overall.

With the game total set at 8.5 runs, the Mets hold a significant advantage as they look to capitalize on their favorable matchup against a struggling Marlins team. As betting favorites with a moneyline of -185, the projections indicate a high implied team total of 4.85 runs for the Mets, while the Marlins sit at a low 3.65 runs. The stage is set for the Mets to continue their momentum and extend their lead in this series.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Among all SPs, Max Meyer's fastball spin rate of 2402 rpm ranks in the 82nd percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Over the past 14 days, Ali Sanchez's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.7% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Miami Marlins have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Stowers, Jake Burger, Derek Hill).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Luis Severino has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording 3.3 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Pete Alonso has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 89.2-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The New York Mets bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 17 of their last 27 games at home (+9.95 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 36 games (+15.55 Units / 35% ROI)
• Mark Vientos has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 21 games at home (+18.60 Units / 89% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 3.74 vs New York Mets 4.64

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