Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Pick – 8/31/2025
The Miami Marlins will visit the New York Mets at Citi Field on Sunday in the rubber match of their four-game weekend series. The Mets enter as the home favorite after a strong season at Citi Field. But Miami took Saturday’s game between these teams and will look to steal the series on the road today. Before the action begins from Queens, continue reading to get my Marlins vs Mets prediction.
Our Marlins vs Mets Pick
- Pick: New York Mets -1.5
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Miami Marlins vs New York Mets
- Date & Time: Sunday, August 31, 2025, 1:40 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Sandy Alcantara (RHP) vs Kodai Senga (RHP)
- Stadium: Citi Field, Flushing, Queens, NY
- Broadcast: MLB.tv
Key Storylines
Pitching Matchup
Kodai Senga will get the start for the Mets today. Senga is 7-5 with a 2.73 ERA in 108.2 innings of work this season. Senga is allowing well under a hit per inning but has allowed 53 walks and needs to improve his control to avoid putting himself in harm’s way today.
Sandy Alcantara is 7-11 with a 5.87 ERA in 141 innings this season. Alcantara still brings elite velocity and durability. But he still looks a far cry from the Cy Young winner he was in the past. He still has a high ceiling in any given start but his consistency is lacking.
Key Players
The key players on both sides are the pitching staffs. Both pitching staffs have struggled mightily in this series. There have been 47 runs scored between the two teams over the last two games of this series. Whichever bullpen can avoid getting blown up in this game will give their team a great chance to come away with a win.
Recent Team Streaks
- The Marlins have won two out of three against the Mets going into Sunday’s series finale.
- New York has lost two out of three in this series but has won three of their last five games.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Juan Soto | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Pete Alonso | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Kodai Senga | Over 5.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Mets hold a 5-4 lead in their season series against the Marlins this year.
- All three games of the current series between these teams have gone over their respective totals.
- Miami has won three of the last four contests between these two teams.
Marlins vs Mets Model Projection
Score Projection: New York Mets 5 – Miami Marlins 3
Win Probability: New York Mets 62%, Miami Marlins 38%
Final Thoughts
At some point I would expect the pitching staffs on both sides to improve from what we’ve seen over the last couple of days at Citi Field. The Mets should be especially impactful on the mound today with Kodai Senga. I’ll lay the runline with the Mets here in anticipation of them getting their act together from a pitching standpoint against the Marlins.
