Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Pick – 8/30/2025
The New York Mets and Miami Marlins will continue their four-game series on Saturday afternoon. Each team has taken a game during this series so far and will look for a huge win to take the series lead going into Sunday’s finale. Before these NL East rivals do battle in Queens, you can continue reading to find out what I think of this game with my Marlins vs Mets prediction.
Our Marlins vs Mets Pick
- Pick: New York Mets -1.5
- Confidence: 4/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Miami Marlins at New York Mets
- Date & Time: Saturday, August 30, 2025, 4:10 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Edward Cabrera vs David Peterson
- Stadium: Citi Field, Queens, New York
- Broadcast: MLB Network
Key Storylines
- The Mets offense is red hot after a 19-run outburst on August 29 that saw Juan Soto, Brandon Nimmo and Pete Alonso all go deep.
- The Mets are five games clear of the teams chasing them in the NL Wild Card race. New York sits in the third Wild Card spot and could still move up before the regular season ends.
Pitching matchup
David Peterson gets the ball for the Mets in this contest. Peterson has been a dependable starter who benefits from New York’s run support on a regular basis. But Peterson deserves some credit as well thanks to his 3.18 ERA. The Marlins will go with Edward Cabrera on the bump here. Cabrera has swing-and-miss stuff but has been inconsistent on the road this season. The Mets’ offense will test Cabrera early and the Mets bullpen should be comfortable protecting a lead at home.
Key Players
The Mets hit six home runs last night from several power sources. That will make the Marlins bullpen incredibly important in this game as they can’t afford to leak runs like they did during Friday’s blowout loss.
Recent team streaks
The Mets have won four of their last five games following Friday’s win over the Marlins heading into the weekend. The Marlins lost their last game and they have dropped three of their last four games overall.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Juan Soto | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Pete Alonso | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Brandon Nimmo | Over 0.5 RBI |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Mets hold a 5-3 lead in their season series against the Marlins.
- These teams have split the first two games of this four-game series.
- Both games in this four-game set have gone over their totals so far.
- Three of the last four games between these teams have seen 10+ total runs scored.
Marlins vs Mets Model Projection
Score Projection: Miami Marlins 3 – New York Mets 6.
Win Probability: Miami Marlins 35%, New York Mets 65%.
Final Thoughts
The Mets shouldn’t have too much of a problem winning this game and covering the runline at home. Peterson has been rock solid for them and the Mets’ offense broke out in a big way last night. I expect another strong showing from New York at the plate and for the Mets to win big for the second time in a row.
