Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Pick – 8/29/2025
The Miami Marlins surprised the New York Mets at Citi Field on Thursday night. The Marlins will look for as second win in a row in this series when these teams run it back on Friday night. The Mets are favorites at home and will look to get the win behind a starting pitcher making his debut tonight. Here, you can find my Marlins vs Mets prediction for this NL East matchup.
Our Marlins vs Mets Pick
- Pick: Miami Marlins Moneyline
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Miami Marlins vs New York Mets
- Date & Time: Friday, August 29, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Eury Pérez (MIA) vs Jonah Tong (NYM)
- Stadium: Citi Field, Queens, NY
- Broadcast: SNY and FDSFL
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Eury Pérez brings a 6-3 record and a 3.44 ERA into this outing. He’s shown impressive control and has struck out 70 batters in 70.2 innings. Jonah Tong is a highly-touted prospect for the Mets and will make his first major league start after a dominant minor league season. That leap from minors could cause Tong problems in this contest.
Key Players
- Juan Soto leads the Mets with 32 home runs and remains a central figure in their offense.
- Pete Alonso has 108 RBI and is one of the reliable bats in the middle of New York’s order.
- The Miami lineup as a whole will be key in this game. They need to find a way to replace the production of Kyle Stowers, who is on the IL.
Recent team streaks
The Mets have won three of their last four games. They had a three-game winning streak snapped by the Marlins last night. Miami saw a two-game losing streak come to an end with their win over the Mets last night.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop Type | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | Total Bases | Under 1.5 |
| Eury Pérez | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 |
| Mark Vientos | Total Bases | Under 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Mets hold a 4-3 lead in the season series between these two teams.
- The Marlins have struggled with a 32-45 record in night games on the year.
- New York is 46-38 in their night games for the season.
Marlins vs Mets Model Projection
Score Projection: Miami 5 – New York 4
Win Probability: Miami 50%, New York 50%
Final Thoughts
The New York Mets are the better team in this matchup in most cases. But the factors surrounding this contest in particular appear to benefit the Miami Marlins. Miami has a proven starting pitcher on the mound and should be able to shut down at least some of the bats for the Mets. New York could also struggle on the mound with an MLB debutant pitching. I’ll go with the Marlins to win as a dog on the road here behind Eury Perez.
