Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Pick – 8/28/2025
The New York Mets will host the Miami Marlins in the first game of a four-game series on Thursday. The Mets are still in contention for the NL East championship and will look to take advantage of these games against an opponent that is under .500 for the year. Below, you can find my detailed breakdown of this game, including my Marlins vs Mets prediction.
Our Marlins vs Mets Pick
- Pick: New York Mets –1.5
- Confidence: 5/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Mets vs Miami Marlins
- Date & Time: Thursday, August 28, 2025 @ 7:10 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Clay Holmes vs Adam Mazur
- Stadium: Citi Field, Queens, NY
- Broadcast: MLB Network
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Clay Holmes enters tonight’s game with an 11-6 record and 3.60 ERA over 137.1 innings. He is a steady presence hoping to secure his 12th win and move the Mets closer to the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East standings. Adam Mazur has pitched just 5.2 innings this season and has a 6.35 ERA over that small sample size. The Mets have the clear advantage in starting pitching going into tonight.
Key Players
- Juan Soto and Pete Alonso are the top contributors for the Mets from a power perspective and they will look to rough up Mazur early in this game.
- Xavier Edwards is the offensive anchor for Miami while Kyle Stowers is on the IL.
Recent team streaks
- The Mets have won three straight series and come off a series sweep against the Phillies.
- The Marlins lost two straight to the Atlanta Braves before this series and are 2-3 in their last five games.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Juan Soto | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Brandon Nimmo | Over 0.5 RBI |
| Pete Alonso | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Mets lead the Marlins 4-2 in their season series so far this year.
- These teams will play seven more games against each other over the next month to end the season.
- Miami is 31-34 on the road and has a better road record than their record at home.
- The Mets enter this game at 44-24 at home.
Marlins vs Mets Model Projection
- Score Projection: Mets 6 – Marlins 2
- Win Probability: Mets 65%, Marlins 35%
Final Thoughts
The New York Mets have the edge all over the field coming into this series opener from Queens. New York has a better starting pitching situation and their lineup is vastly superior to that of a Marlins team that is without its All-Star in Kyle Stowers. I’ll take the Mets to win this game convincingly and to cover the runline at home in a huge game for their division title hopes.
