Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Pick – 4/8/2025

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Betting Preview

In this National League East matchup on April 8, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Miami Marlins at Citi Field. After a strong start to the season, the Mets hold a 7-3 record, showcasing their potential as they aim to build momentum. In contrast, the Marlins sit at 5-5, struggling to find consistency in their performance.

The two teams faced off yesterday, with the Mets securing a convincing victory, adding to their confidence as they look to make it two in a row. On the mound, the Mets will rely on Clay Holmes, who has been one of the standout pitchers despite a 0-1 record this season. His ERA of 2.89 is impressive, suggesting he has been effective, although his 3.90 xFIP indicates he may be due for some regression. Holmes projects to pitch an average of 6.1 innings while allowing just 1.5 earned runs, underscoring his capability to dominate.

Conversely, the Marlins will send Connor Gillispie to the mound, who has struggled with his performance. With a 0-1 record and a 3.60 ERA, his projections suggest he might allow an average of 2.5 earned runs in just 4.6 innings. His 4.37 xFIP further indicates that he has not been as effective as his ERA suggests.

With the Mets heavily favored, sportsbooks have set a low Game Total of 7.0 runs, reflecting the anticipated strong pitching matchup. The Mets have an implied team total of 4.34 runs, while the Marlins' sits at a mere 2.66 runs, painting a picture of a challenging night ahead for Miami’s hitters.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Typically, bats like Derek Hill who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Clay Holmes.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Kyle Stowers hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

In his last GS, Clay Holmes performed well and conceded 2 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Brandon Nimmo has made substantial strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 9.2% rate last year to 16% this year.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The New York Mets have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Mark Vientos, Jose Siri, Hayden Senger).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 69 of their last 112 games (+20.70 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 35 away games (+14.10 Units / 40% ROI)
• Griffin Conine has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 6 games (+2.50 Units / 42% ROI)

• Date: April 8, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Connor Gillispie - Marlins
  • Clay Holmes - Mets

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.