Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Betting Pick & Preview – 8/16/2024

• Date: August 16, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Roddery Munoz - Marlins
  • Sean Manaea - Mets

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Betting Preview

On August 16, 2024, the New York Mets will host the Miami Marlins at Citi Field in the first game of their series. While the Mets are enjoying a relatively average season with a record of 62-59, the Marlins are struggling significantly, sitting at 45-76.

In their last game, the Mets suffered a loss to the lowly Oakland Athletics, one they will look to rebound from in this contest. They are projected to start Sean Manaea, a left-handed pitcher who has had a decent season with an ERA of 3.44 and a Win/Loss record of 8-5. However, the advanced projections suggest he may have been somewhat fortunate this year, as his 4.31 xFIP indicates he could face some challenges moving forward. On the other hand, Roddery Munoz will take the mound for the Marlins. Munoz has struggled significantly, recording a 5.67 ERA with a Win/Loss record of just 2-6. The projections indicate Munoz has had some bad luck, but his elevated 6.33 xERA suggests he may not be able to maintain even mediocre performance.

Offensively, the Mets rank 10th in MLB, showcasing their batting prowess, particularly with power, as they sit 4th in home runs with 132 this season. In contrast, the Marlins' offense ranks 29th overall and struggles to produce with only 85 home runs this year, the second least in MLB. Given the matchups and the current form of both teams, the Mets are positioned as strong favorites against a struggling Marlins team.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Roddery Munoz is projected to throw 84 pitches in this game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 12th-least on the slate.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Despite posting a .384 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Xavier Edwards has experienced some positive variance given the .082 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .302.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The Miami Marlins have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Derek Hill, Kyle Stowers, David Hensley).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Sean Manaea has used his sinker 34.1% more often this season (34.8%) than he did last year (0.7%).

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

In the past two weeks, Francisco Lindor's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.4% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets' bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst among all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 24 games at home (+9.25 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 28 games (+17.75 Units / 51% ROI)
• Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.60 Units / 56% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 3.63 vs New York Mets 5.28

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