Miami Marlins vs Minnesota Twins Prediction & Picks 9/25/2024

• Date: September 25, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Edward Cabrera - Marlins
  • Simeon Woods Richardson - Twins

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

As the Minnesota Twins gear up to face the Miami Marlins on September 25, 2024, at Target Field, the dynamic of this interleague matchup is intriguing despite the teams' contrasting seasons. The Twins, sitting with an 81-76 record, are enjoying a commendable season and remain in the hunt for a postseason berth. Meanwhile, the Marlins have struggled to a 58-99 record, ranking 29th in baseball by offensive metrics and largely out of playoff contention.

In their previous matchup, the Marlins upset the Twins, who need to bounce back in today's matchup between these teams. This game will see Simeon Woods Richardson and Edward Cabrera on the mound. Woods Richardson ranks as the 172nd best starting pitcher, suggesting vulnerability despite his solid 4.00 ERA. His peripheral stats, such as a 4.55 xFIP, indicate potential regression. Cabrera, the 90th ranked starter, presents a reverse narrative, with a 5.12 ERA but an xFIP of 3.99, suggesting he's been a victim of bad luck and might be poised for a better outing.

Offensively, the Twins tout the 11th-best lineup, with notable strength in batting average and moderate power, ranking 10th in batting average and 13th in home runs. Conversely, the Marlins' bats have been largely quiet, too often failing to support their pitchers. The bullpen comparison further tips the scales in Minnesota's favor, with Miami boasting the league's 29th-ranked relief corps.

From a betting perspective, the Twins enter as significant favorites, with a moneyline of -180. However, the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, offers a glimmer of hope for Miami, projecting a closer contest than the odds suggest and noting value in backing the underdog Marlins. With the Twins having more to play for and the Marlins seeking to defy expectations, this game promises another chapter in the unpredictable narrative of baseball.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Edward Cabrera's high utilization percentage of his secondary pitches (63.8% this year) figures to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Nick Fortes's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 91.2-mph EV last year has decreased to 86.4-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Miami Marlins have 4 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Stowers, Jake Burger, Griffin Conine, Connor Norby).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Simeon Woods Richardson’s fastball velocity over his last 3 games started (91.3 mph) has been significantly worse than than his seasonal rate (92.5 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

When it comes to his home runs, Willi Castro has been unlucky this year. His 11.7 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a good deal lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 18.7.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins' bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 42 games at home (+9.70 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 58 away games (+14.20 Units / 22% ROI)
• Otto Lopez has hit the Singles Over in 32 of his last 47 games (+9.65 Units / 14% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.38 vs Minnesota Twins 4.7

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