Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction – 5/23/2025

On May 23, 2025, the Los Angeles Angels will host the Miami Marlins at Angel Stadium for the first game of their series. The Angels find themselves with a record of 24-25 this season, reflecting an average start. Meanwhile, the Marlins are struggling at 19-29, indicating a tough stretch for the team.

The Angels will start Yusei Kikuchi in this contest. Kikuchi has a disappointing record of 0-4 despite an impressive ERA of 3.50. Kikuchi's projections indicate he should last around 6.1 innings and allow approximately 2.7 earned runs, which aligns with his solid performance metrics. However, his projected 4.42 xFIP suggests he may have been fortunate and could regress moving forward.

On the opposing side, Sandy Alcantara is slated to take the mound for the Marlins. Although Alcantara has a solid projection of 6.2 innings and 2.6 earned runs, his struggles this season are evident in his miserable ERA of 7.99. Given his high ground ball percentage, he faces an Angels' offense that ranks 5th in MLB for home runs. This could play to Kikuchi's advantage if he can exploit Alcantara's control issues, reflected in a 12.0 BB% against an Angels lineup that walks the least in MLB.

As for betting perspectives, the Angels are favored with a moneyline of -150, suggesting confidence in their chances to win this matchup. With the Marlins' recent performance and their low implied team total of 3.67 runs, this game presents an opportunity for the Angels to capitalize on their power against a faltering pitching staff.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

The Miami Marlins infield defense grades out as the strongest among every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Jesus Sanchez is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 93% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Miami Marlins have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jesus Sanchez, Derek Hill, Connor Norby).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Yusei Kikuchi is an extreme groundball pitcher (43.1% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Angel Stadium — the #9 HR venue among all major league parks — in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Nolan Schanuel is apt to have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst among all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+10.70 Units / 63% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 38 games (+8.55 Units / 20% ROI)
• Taylor Ward has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 10 games (+23.40 Units / 234% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.15, Los Angeles Angels 4.09

• Date: May 23, 2025
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sandy Alcantara - Marlins
  • Yusei Kikuchi - Angels

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