Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Angels Pick – 5/25/2025

The Los Angeles Angels host the Miami Marlins on May 25, 2025, in what could be a pivotal matchup for both teams. Currently, the Angels sit at 25-26, having had an average season, while the Marlins struggle at 20-30, reflecting a disappointing year. This game marks the third in their series, with the Marlins looking to get a second win in a row.

On the mound, the Angels will send Kyle Hendricks, who is projected to pitch an average of 5.9 innings and allow around 3.0 earned runs today. Despite a challenging season with a 2-5 record and a 5.32 ERA, projections indicate that Hendricks has been somewhat unlucky, as his xERA suggests he could improve. His performance will be critical against a Marlins offense that ranks 17th overall but has struggled to find power, sitting 22nd in home runs.

Edward Cabrera takes the hill for Miami, carrying a 0-1 record and a 5.50 ERA. Cabrera's projections show he may only last about 4.9 innings today, with expectations of allowing 2.7 earned runs. The Marlins' offense has shown some spark recently but remains inconsistent, making it essential for Cabrera to deliver a strong outing.

From a betting perspective, the Angels are favored with a moneyline of -135, reflecting a 55% implied probability of winning. With their better overall offensive ranking—3rd in home runs despite a low batting average—Los Angeles seems poised to capitalize on their power against a struggling Marlins bullpen, currently ranked 25th. As the Angels aim to gain ground in the standings, this matchup could be crucial for their season trajectory.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Edward Cabrera is an extreme groundball pitcher (46.2% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Angel Stadium — the #9 HR venue in MLB — in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Matt Mervis has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (57% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Jesus Sanchez ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Given his reverse platoon split, Kyle Hendricks faces a tough challenge being matched up with 6 batters in the projected batting order who share the same handedness in today's matchup.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nolan Schanuel stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Los Angeles Angels have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Logan O'Hoppe, Kyren Paris, Jo Adell).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+6.95 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games (+8.55 Units / 20% ROI)
• Taylor Ward has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+12.90 Units / 129% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.89, Los Angeles Angels 4.74

• Date: May 25, 2025
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Edward Cabrera - Marlins
  • Kyle Hendricks - Angels

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