Miami Marlins vs Kansas City Royals Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/26/2024

Miami Marlins vs Kansas City Royals Details

• Date: June 26, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Valente Bellozo - Marlins
  • Brady Singer - Royals

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

As the Kansas City Royals and Miami Marlins square off on June 26, 2024, at Kauffman Stadium, the matchup appears to be lopsided on paper. The Royals, with a 43-38 record, are having an above-average season and are currently the favorites with a moneyline of -220, indicating an implied win probability of 67%. On the other hand, the Marlins are struggling with a 28-51 record and enter as significant underdogs at +190.

The pitching duel will feature Brady Singer for the Royals against Valente Bellozo for the Marlins. Singer, who ranks as the 85th best starting pitcher according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, has been solid this season with a 3.39 ERA over 15 starts. However, his peripherals, including a 4.15 FIP, suggest some regression might be on the horizon. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, estimates Singer will pitch 6.1 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs while striking out 5.2 batters.

Bellozo, on the other hand, is making his season debut for the Marlins. It will be interesting to see how he handles the spotlight in what will be his first major league pitching appearance in his career.

Offensively, Kansas City holds the advantage. The Royals' lineup ranks 14th in MLB, with average metrics in batting average, home runs, and stolen bases. Recently, MJ Melendez has been a standout, recording a .825 OPS over the last week. In contrast, Miami's offense is among the league's worst, ranking 29th overall and last in home runs. Bryan De La Cruz has been their bright spot lately, boasting a .833 OPS in the past week.

Kansas City's bullpen, however, could be a vulnerability, as it ranks 26th in our Power Rankings. Miami's bullpen isn't much better, positioned 21st. This could lead to some late-game scoring opportunities for both teams.

Given the context, the Royals hold a significant edge in this interleague matchup. Their balanced offense, coupled with the more reliable pitching of Singer, suggests they are well-positioned to secure the win and take the series over the struggling Marlins.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Extreme groundball hitters like Josh Bell are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Brady Singer.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Nick Loftin is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Kansas City Royals' bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+7.80 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 33 away games (+11.90 Units / 32% ROI)
• Salvador Perez has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.25 Units / 29% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.34 vs Kansas City Royals 5.35

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.