Miami Marlins vs Kansas City Royals Betting Pick & Preview – 6/25/2024

Miami Marlins vs Kansas City Royals Details

• Date: June 25, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yonny Chirinos - Marlins
  • Seth Lugo - Royals

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

As the Kansas City Royals host the Miami Marlins on June 25, 2024, at Kauffman Stadium, fans will witness an intriguing interleague matchup. The Royals, currently boasting a 43-37 record, are having an above-average season and sit in a competitive position. Meanwhile, the Marlins, with a dismal 27-51 record, have struggled significantly this season.

In the first game of the series yesterday, the Royals secured a win, adding to their momentum. On the mound for Kansas City will be Seth Lugo, a right-handed pitcher with a 10-2 record and an impressive 2.42 ERA this season. However, Lugo's 3.86 xFIP suggests he has benefited from some luck and may regress. Lugo's projection for today's game includes 5.9 innings pitched, 3.2 earned runs allowed, 4.6 strikeouts, 6.9 hits, and 1.1 walks.

On the flip side, the Marlins will counter with Yonny Chirinos, a right-hander who has started just one game this year. Chirinos has a respectable 3.60 ERA, but his 2.74 xFIP indicates he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward. Chirinos is projected to pitch 5.0 innings, allowing 3.6 earned runs, striking out 2.7 batters, giving up 6.5 hits, and issuing 1.3 walks.

Offensively, the Royals have an average but balanced attack, ranking 14th in overall offense, 15th in batting average, 19th in home runs, and 7th in stolen bases. In contrast, the Marlins rank near the bottom in nearly every offensive category, including 29th in overall offense, 22nd in batting average, 30th in home runs, and 25th in stolen bases.

The Royals' bullpen is ranked 25th, while the Marlins' bullpen is slightly better at 21st, though both are considered below average. Notably, Kansas City's Kyle Isbel has been hot recently, hitting .333 with a 1.000 OPS over the last week. Miami's Jesus Sanchez has also been impressive, boasting a .286 average with 3 home runs and a 1.162 OPS in the last seven days.

Given these factors, the Royals are heavy favorites with a moneyline of -200, translating to an implied win probability of 64%. The Marlins, as significant underdogs at +170, have an implied win probability of 36%. The game total is set at 9.5 runs, suggesting a high-scoring affair. With Kansas City's balanced lineup and Lugo's strong season, they appear well-positioned to take another victory against a struggling Miami squad.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

When it comes to his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Yonny Chirinos in the 4th percentile among all starting pitchers in the league.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Nick Gordon will have the handedness advantage over Seth Lugo in today's game.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins' bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst among all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Hunter Renfroe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.1% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 4th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 33 games at home (+7.05 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 32 away games (+10.90 Units / 31% ROI)
• Salvador Perez has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+11.15 Units / 28% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 5.33 vs Kansas City Royals 5.92

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