Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/11/2024

Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros Details

• Date: July 11, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Roddery Munoz - Marlins
  • Jake Bloss - Astros

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros will host the Miami Marlins at Minute Maid Park on July 11, 2024, in the third game of their interleague series. The Astros are having an above-average season with a 48-44 record, vying for higher playoff seeding, while the Marlins struggle with a 32-60 record, making this game crucial for Houston's postseason aspirations.

The Astros have dominated offensively, ranking 6th in MLB, bolstered by their 1st place batting average and 9th place in home runs. However, they'll send Jake Bloss to the mound, who despite being considered one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB per our advanced-stat Power Rankings, brings some favorable matchups. Bloss, a high-flyball pitcher with a 5.6 BB%, could exploit Miami's power deficiency, as the Marlins rank 30th in home runs this season.

On the other side, the Marlins' offense has been abysmal, ranking last in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X. Miami's Roddery Munoz, another struggling right-hander, holds a 5.48 ERA and faces an Astros lineup that thrives on contact. THE BAT X projects Munoz to allow 3.2 earned runs, 5.3 hits, and 2.1 walks over 4.8 innings pitched—everything pointing to a tough outing against Houston's potent offense.

Despite Bloss's below-average stats, including a 4.91 ERA and a 6.07 xFIP, the Astros' bullpen, ranked 10th, should provide solid support. In contrast, the Marlins' bullpen ranks 16th, adding to their uphill battle.

Alex Bregman has been on fire for the Astros, recording 10 hits, 8 RBIs, and a .400 batting average over his last 6 games. Dane Myers has been the Marlins' bright spot, hitting .429 with a 1.214 OPS over the last week, but he’s one of the few positives in a struggling lineup.

The betting lines heavily favor Houston, with a moneyline of -195 and an implied win probability of 64%, reflecting their offensive prowess and Miami's ongoing struggles. Expect the Astros to capitalize on these mismatches in this crucial game.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Among all starting pitchers, Roddery Munoz's fastball velocity of 95.1 mph grades out in the 89th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jesus Sanchez has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.3-mph average to last year's 90.3-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jesus Sanchez has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

John Bloss has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 13.7 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Cesar Salazar is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of Miami (#2-worst on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Houston Astros in today's game owns an estimated true talent wOBA of .308, which is considerably worse than their actual wOBA of .322 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 21 of their last 29 games (+13.45 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 43 of their last 67 games (+15.90 Units / 19% ROI)
• Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 40% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.38 vs Houston Astros 4.86

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