Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/28/2024

• Date: August 28, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Max Meyer - Marlins
  • Kyle Freeland - Rockies

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

As the Colorado Rockies prepare to host the Miami Marlins on August 28, 2024, both teams find themselves entwined in a battle of underachievement, sitting near the bottom of the standings. The Rockies are 49-84, while the Marlins are slightly behind at 48-84, making this matchup crucial as each team seeks to salvage pride in a disappointing season.

In their last game, the Rockies fell to the Marlins, further emphasizing their struggles. The Rockies are projected to start Kyle Freeland, who has had a tumultuous season with a 3-6 record and an alarming ERA of 5.70. While Freeland ranks as the 174th best starting pitcher in MLB, his 4.31 xFIP suggests potential for improvement, indicating he may have been unlucky thus far. However, he faces a Miami offense that ranks as the 29th best in MLB, making this a prime opportunity for him to stabilize his performance.

Max Meyer is set to start for the Marlins, bringing a 3-3 record and a 5.44 ERA into the game. Like Freeland, he too has had his share of challenges, with projections indicating he may perform better than his numbers show. Both pitchers have unfavorable strikeout and walk rates, which could lead to a high-scoring affair given the Rockies rank 20th in offensive output, and the Marlins are at 29th.

The game's total is set at a lofty 11.0 runs, reflecting the lack of confidence in either team’s pitching staff. The Rockies have an implied team total of 5.76 runs, while the Marlins sit at 5.24. With their offenses underperforming this season, the Rockies may stand a stronger chance to capitalize on this setting and reverse their fortunes against a similarly faltering rival.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

The Miami Marlins outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-best out of all the teams today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Nick Fortes's average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 84-mph seasonal average has decreased to 71.7-mph in the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that the Miami Marlins will score 5.76 runs on average in this game: the 3rd-most of all teams playing today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Kyle Freeland is projected to throw 85 pitches in this matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 11th-least of all pitchers today.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Ezequiel Tovar has experienced some positive variance in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .319 mark is considerably higher than his .277 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Today’s version of the Rockies projected batting order is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .296 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .318 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 25 games at home (+7.10 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 37 games (+16.10 Units / 35% ROI)
• Charlie Blackmon has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games at home (+7.60 Units / 190% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 5.76 vs Colorado Rockies 5.87

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