Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/13/2024

Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds Details

• Date: July 13, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Edward Cabrera - Marlins
  • Andrew Abbott - Reds

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to host the Miami Marlins on July 13, 2024, at Great American Ball Park, both teams are looking for a boost in what has been a challenging season for each. The Reds, sitting at 46-49, are having a below-average year but still better than the Marlins, who are struggling with a 32-62 record.

The Reds will send left-hander Andrew Abbott to the mound. Abbott, who has a solid ERA of 3.06###101, is considered an average pitcher according to the advanced-stat Power Rankings, ranking 100th out of approximately 350 starting pitchers. However, his xFIP of 4.84 suggests he has been somewhat fortunate this season and may regress. Abbott is projected to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 3.0 earned runs, which is concerning for Cincinnati. On the flip side, Miami's offense ranks dead last in MLB in home runs and overall offensive performance, which could play into Abbott's high flyball tendencies.

Edward Cabrera will start for the Marlins. Cabrera has had a rough season with a 6.84 ERA but his xFIP of 3.47 indicates he's been unlucky and might perform better moving forward. Cabrera, who ranks 74th in the Power Rankings, projects to pitch 4.6 innings and allow 2.5 earned runs. His high strikeout rate (30.7%) could be an advantage against a Reds offense that ranks 6th in most strikeouts in MLB.

Offensively, the Reds have been inconsistent. They rank 17th in overall offensive performance but are 26th in batting average. However, they do lead MLB in stolen bases, adding a dynamic element to their game. Rece Hinds has been a standout over the last week, hitting .474 with a 1.711 OPS, 3 home runs, and 2 stolen bases in just 5 games.

The Marlins, on the other hand, have struggled mightily. They rank 30th in overall offense and home runs, and 24th in both batting average and stolen bases. Dane Myers has been a bright spot recently, batting .417 with a 1.128 OPS over the last 7 games.

Cincinnati's bullpen ranks 24th in MLB, adding another layer of difficulty, while Miami's bullpen sits at a more respectable 15th. The Reds are favorites with a moneyline of -160, giving them an implied win probability of 59%. With the Marlins as +135 underdogs, the Reds are expected to capitalize on their superior record and home-field advantage.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Edward Cabrera's higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this year (75.2% compared to 63.1% last year) figures to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Nick Fortes's average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 88.1-mph mark last season has decreased to 85.6-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Miami Marlins have been the unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in future games

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Out of every team playing today, the worst infield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

As it relates to his batting average, Jake Fraley has had positive variance on his side this year. His .273 BA has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .221.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

The Cincinnati Reds bullpen grades out as the 7th-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 80 games (+10.75 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 45 of their last 71 games (+16.00 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jeimer Candelario has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 28 games (+16.60 Units / 59% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 5.29 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.94

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