Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds Pick – 7/9/2025

The Miami Marlins and Cincinnati Reds will play the third game of their four-game series on Wednesday night. Miami has taken the first two games of this series despite being the road team. Cincinnati will look to respond at home tonight and will need to generate some offense to do that. Here, I give you my breakdown of this National League contest and make my Marlins vs Reds prediction.

Our Marlins vs Reds Pick

• Pick: Cincinnati Reds Moneyline
• Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds
• Date & Time: Wednesday, July 9, 2025, 7:10 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Sandy Alcantara (MIA) vs Andrew Abbott (CIN)
• Stadium: Great American Ball Park
• Broadcast: FDSOH, FDSFL

Key Storylines

Pitching form

• Andrew Abbott has been exceptional this season with a 7-1 record and 2.15 ERA. He is projected to give the Reds a starting pitching advantage in this contest.
• Sandy Alcantara has a 4-8 record and a 7.01 ERA. He has shown some flashes this season but his main problem is a lack of consistency. If he can find his control again, he could be dangerous for the fish.

Bullpen usage

Miami’s bullpen has dominated the bullpen battle in this series so far. They have helped hold the Reds to just three runs over the first two games of this series. If that trend continues, the Marlins could easily win a third straight over the Reds in Cincinnati.

Recent team streaks

• The Marlins have won two straight games and three of their last four.
• Cincinnati has dropped four games in a row coming into the third game of this series.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• The Marlins lead the season series against the Reds by a 4-1 margin.
• Miami is 22-21 on the road after their two wins in Cincinnati. The Reds are 24-21 at home for the year.
• Miami has now covered the runline in 60% of their games this season. That percentage is the best in MLB.

Marlins vs Reds Model Projection

Score Projection: Reds 5 – Marlins 4

Win Probability: Reds 57% – Marlins 43%

Final Thoughts

The Marlins have dominated this series so far. But the pitching advantage in this game is in the corner of the Cincinnati Reds. Abbott has been spectacular for Cincinnati in 2025. Meanwhile, Alcantara has had a ton of problems pitching well on a consistent basis. I’ll take the Reds to win this game even if their bullpen worries me a bit based on what we’ve seen in this series.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.