Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds Pick – 7/10/2025

The Miami Marlins and Cincinnati Reds will wrap up their four-game series on Thursday in Cincinnati. Miami has taken two of the first three games of this series. But the Reds took the most recent game and will look to salvage a split from this matchup. Continue reading to get my analysis before the first pitch is thrown, including my Marlins vs Reds prediction from Cincinnati.

Our Marlins vs Reds Pick

• Pick: Reds -1.5
• Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds
• Date & Time: Thursday, July 10, 2025, 5:10 pm ET
• Starting Pitchers: Cal Quantrill (3‑7, 5.40 ERA) vs Nick Lodolo (5‑6, 3.58 ERA)
• Stadium: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
• Broadcast: FDSOH, FDSFL

Key Storylines

1. Lodolo vs Quantrill: Quantrill has been shaky at 3-7 with a 5.40 ERA. Lodolo has been more reliable recently. The Reds certainly have the advantage in the starting pitching department going into this game.
2. Marlins Staying Competitive: Miami is in third place in the AL East standings. They are ahead of the Atlanta Braves as the All-Star break nears. A strong finish to the first half of the season would be huge for them.
3. Bullpen usage: Both teams are slightly below average in terms of their bullpen ERAs. These bullpens have both had their ups and downs in this series alone.

Recent team streaks

• Marlins: The Marlins had a two-game winning streak snapped by the Reds yesterday. But Miami has won six of their last 10 games and are playing some solid baseball lately.
• Reds: The Reds are 1‑4 in last 5 games. But they did manage to snap a losing streak of their own with a win on Wednesday night.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• The Marlins are a respectable 22-22 on the road for the season. Cincinnati is slightly above .500 at home at 25-21.
• Day/night splits: The Marlins are a dismal 21-30 in night games this year. Cincinnati has gone 27-24 in evening contests.
• Despite failing to cover the runline last night, the Marlins have the best runline win percentage in baseball this year at 59.3%.
• The Marlins lead the season series between these teams by a 4-2 margin.

Marlins vs Reds Model Projection

Score Projection: Reds 5 – Marlins 3

Win Probability: Reds 57%, Marlins 43%

Final Thoughts

Miami is playing well lately. But the Marlins are at a clear pitching disadvantage in this game. Lodolo has been legitimately good for the Reds for most of this year. I expect him to mow down the Marlins bats and to help the Reds win this contest and cover the runline in the final game of this four-game set.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.