Miami Marlins vs Chicago White Sox Prediction – 5/11/2025

As the Miami Marlins visit Guaranteed Rate Field on May 11, 2025, both teams are struggling this season, with the Chicago White Sox sitting at 11-29 and the Marlins at 15-23. After facing off yesterday, the Marlins secured a victory, adding to the White Sox's underwhelming performance this season.

In this Interleague matchup, the White Sox will turn to Sean Burke, who has displayed some inconsistency. Despite a 4.35 ERA, his xFIP of 5.41 suggests that he has been fortunate, potentially indicating worse outings ahead. Burke is projected to pitch 5.5 innings and allow around 2.6 earned runs, but he has a tendency to struggle with walks, averaging 1.6 per game, which could be problematic against a Marlins lineup that ranks 18th in the league.

On the other side, the Marlins are sending out Sandy Alcantara, who despite a poor 8.42 ERA, has an xFIP of 4.68 that points to potential improvement. Alcantara's ability to generate ground balls (50% GB rate) could neutralize the White Sox's lack of power, as they have hit the 4th fewest home runs in MLB this season.

Offensively, the White Sox rank 30th in team batting average and home runs, making it difficult to expect run support for Burke. The projections favor the Marlins in this matchup, estimating an average implied team total of 4.23 runs compared to the White Sox’s 3.77. With the Marlins' bullpen ranked last in Power Rankings, the White Sox may find some opportunities late, but overall, Miami appears to have the edge with Alcantara on the mound and a slightly better offensive performance recently.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Sandy Alcantara is an extreme groundball pitcher (49.7% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Guaranteed Rate Field — the #8 HR venue in Major League Baseball — today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Xavier Edwards's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 87.1-mph figure last season has fallen to 84.4-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins' bullpen ranks as the worst among all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Given the 1.73 deviation between Sean Burke's 4.35 ERA and his 6.07 FIP, it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the league this year and ought to negatively regress the rest of the season.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Typically, bats like Joshua Palacios who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Sandy Alcantara.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Chicago White Sox project for the 2nd-least runs on the slate, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+6.25 Units / 66% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 11 away games (+8.90 Units / 75% ROI)
• Agustin Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in 5 of his last 7 away games (+3.85 Units / 42% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.45, Chicago White Sox 3.61

• Date: May 11, 2025
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sandy Alcantara - Marlins
  • Sean Burke - White Sox

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